| 废弃物焚烧处理温室气体排放情景模拟与预测 |
| 摘要点击 1752 全文点击 1140 投稿时间：2022-01-19 修订日期：2022-03-30 |
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| 中文关键词 焚烧处理 温室气体排放 排放情景 碳达峰 碳中和 |
| 英文关键词 incineration treatment greenhouse gas emissions emission scenarios carbon dioxide peaking carbon neutralization |
| 作者 | 单位 | E-mail | | 严薇 | 中国环境科学研究院, 环境基准与风险评估国家重点实验室, 北京 100012
东北师范大学长白山地理过程与生态安全教育部重点实验室, 长春 130024 | Yanw821@nenu.edu.cn | | 刘舒乐 | 中国环境科学研究院, 环境基准与风险评估国家重点实验室, 北京 100012 | | | 吴正方 | 东北师范大学长白山地理过程与生态安全教育部重点实验室, 长春 130024 | | | 高庆先 | 中国环境科学研究院, 环境基准与风险评估国家重点实验室, 北京 100012 | | | 杜海波 | 东北师范大学长白山地理过程与生态安全教育部重点实验室, 长春 130024 | | | 马占云 | 中国环境科学研究院, 环境基准与风险评估国家重点实验室, 北京 100012 | mazy@craes.org.cn | | 冯鹏 | 中国资源卫星应用中心, 北京 100094 | |
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| 中文摘要 |
| 为模拟废弃物焚烧处理过程中产生的温室气体排放，积极推动温室气体减排工作，早日实现碳达峰碳中和目标.基于系统动力学和IPCC温室气体排放计算方法，构建了以基准情景（BAU）为基础，从单一和综合技术类型减排情景出发的焚烧处理温室气体排放模型，并模拟预测了2010~2050年温室气体排放量（以CO2e计，CO2e为CO2当量）的趋势变化、减排潜力以及空间分布.结果表明：①2010~2019年我国废弃物焚烧处理温室气体排放量呈增长趋势，于2016年后显著提升，年增速为18.61%.②2020~2050年，单一技术减排情景的中端改进情景（S2）和终端减排情景（S3）温室气体排放量分别于2043年和2036年达到峰值8410万t和6966万t.综合技术减排情景相较于单一技术减排情景较早达到排放峰值，综合技术减排情景中全过程减排情景（S7）采用多种减排技术协同控制温室气体排放，2050年累积排放量为205927万t，相对BAU情景减排了78.27%，排放达峰时间最早且减排潜力最大.③焚烧处理温室气体排放空间差异显著，排放量较多的省份主要分布在人口密集且经济发达的区域，江苏和广东省排放量最多，甘肃、吉林和宁夏等6个省份为排放低值区. |
| 英文摘要 |
| The aim of this study was to simulate the greenhouse gases (GHG) generated during the waste incineration process and to achieve the goal of carbon peaking and carbon neutrality as soon as possible. Based on system dynamics and IPCC GHG emission calculation methods, GHG emission models of incineration treatment for the baseline scenario (BAU), single technology emission reduction scenarios, and integrated technology emission reduction scenarios were constructed. Additionally, the trend changes, emission reduction potential, and spatial distribution of GHG emissions (with CO2e as the CO2 equivalent) were simulated and projected from 2010 to 2050. The results showed that:① From 2010 to 2019, GHG emissions from waste incineration showed an increasing trend, with the annual growth rate increasing to 18.61% after 2016. ② In the mid-range improvement scenario (S2) and the terminal emission reduction scenario (S3) of the single technology emission reduction scenarios, GHG emissions would peak at 84.1 Mt and 69.66 Mt in 2043 and 2036, respectively. The integrated technology emission reduction scenario reached the peak of emissions earlier than the single technology emission reduction scenario. From 2020 to 2050, the total emission reduction scenario (S7) adopted a variety of emission reduction technologies to control GHG emissions, and the cumulative emission in 2050 was 2059.27 million t, which was 78.27% relative to that in the BAU scenario, with the earliest emission peaking time and the largest emission reduction potential. ③ The spatial variation in GHG emissions from incineration treatment was significant, and the provinces with higher emissions were mainly located in densely populated and economically developed regions. Jiangsu and Guangdong provinces had the highest emissions, and six provinces were low-value areas for emissions, including Gansu, Jilin, and Ningxia. |
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