| 基于LHS-MC青岛市工业源VOCs排放清单及不确定性 |
| 摘要点击 1987 全文点击 750 投稿时间：2021-03-16 修订日期：2021-04-23 |
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| 中文关键词 工业源 挥发性有机物(VOCs) 排放清单 排放特征 不确定性 青岛 |
| 英文关键词 industry volatile organic compounds(VOCs) emission inventory emission characteristics uncertainty Qingdao |
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| 中文摘要 |
| 采用自下而上法，逐一采集企业活动水平，抽样调查企业获取治理措施变量，使用优化后的排放系数法建立青岛市工业源VOCs排放清单，同时将MC和LHS方法联合，模拟单变量和多变量对VOCs清单不确定性影响.结果表明，2019年青岛市工业源VOCs排放总量为4.47万t （未优化排放系数法：3.11万t），排放贡献较大行业依次为橡胶与塑料制品业、金属制品业、石油/煤炭及其他燃料加工业，占总量40.26%.多变量模拟的不确定性高于单变量，工艺过程源（-9.72%~230.51%）和溶剂使用源（-14.14%~122.77%） VOCs清单的不确定性明显高于燃烧源（-15.62%~36.41%）.影响VOCs清单不确定性的行业和主要因素为：化工、造纸和纺织（排放因子）；金属制品、汽车制造和化工（去除率和设施运行率）；石油加工和黑色金属冶炼（样本数少）.VOCs排放主要集中在：西海岸新区东部、大珠山北部、即墨区南部、城阳区北部、胶州市东北部、平度市建成区和莱西市东南部. |
| 英文摘要 |
| In recent years, fine particulate matter(PM2.5) and ozone(O3) have become the main air pollutants in cities in China. Volatile organic compounds(VOCs) are one of the important precursors of PM2.5, O3, and secondary organic aerosols. The establishment of VOCs emission inventory is therefore of great significance for controlling the amount of PM2.5 and O3. To date, the coefficient method has been used, which has error transmission of activity level, parameter and model, leading to the uncertainty of emission inventory. Multivariate uncertainty quantitative analysis of VOCs emission inventory provides an accurate alternative which has not been reported in China. The bottom-up method is adopted to collect the activity level of each enterprise. The variables of pollution control measures are obtained from surveys conducted with enterprises. The VOCs emission inventory of Qingdao from industrial source is established using an optimized coefficient method. The uncertainty of the VOCs inventory on the impact of univariate and multivariate variables is simulated by combining the Monte Carlo method(MC) with Latin hypercube sampling method(LHS). The results show that the total VOCs emissions were 44700 tons from industrial sources in 2019(unoptimized coefficient method:31100 tons).The rubber and plastic industries, metal products, and oil/coal/other fuel processing contributed more VOCs, which accounted for 40.26% of the total emissions. The uncertainty of multivariate simulation is higher than that of single variable. The uncertainty from process(-9.72%-230.51%) and solvent using source(-14.14%-122.77%) is significantly higher than uncertainty from combustion source(-15.62%-36.41%). The main sectors affecting the uncertainty of the VOCs inventory include:the chemical, papermaking, and textile industries(emission factors); metal, automobile manufacturing, and chemical industries(removal rate, facility operating rate); industries of petroleum processing and ferrous metal smelting(too few samples). VOCs emissions are mainly distributed in the east of the West Coast New district, north of Dazhu Mountain, south of Jimo district, north of Chengyang district, northeast of Jiaozhou district, built-up area of Pingdu district, and southeast of Laixi district. |
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