| 基于GAM模型的西安市O3浓度影响因素解析 |
| 摘要点击 3128 全文点击 1277 投稿时间：2019-06-10 修订日期：2019-11-21 |
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| 中文关键词 广义相加模型(GAM) O3浓度 变化特征 影响因素 西安市 |
| 英文关键词 generalized additive model (GAM) ozone concentration variation features influence factors Xi'an |
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| 中文摘要 |
| 基于空气质量监测数据，研究了2014~2018年西安市O3浓度和污染的变化特征，利用GAM模型揭示了气象因素对O3浓度的影响.结果表明：①西安市O3浓度逐年上升，2016年开始O3年评价指标已连续3 a超标.但随着夏季O3污染治理的加强，2017年后O3浓度升幅趋缓.②O3月均浓度变化曲线主要呈倒V型，1~7月随气温的升高而上升，8~12月随气温的下降而下降，7月月均浓度最大.但在降水量偏大的年份，O3月均浓度常在降水量最大月出现谷值，曲线形态变为M型.③2014~2018年西安市O3污染明显加重，O3污染时段向前延长.O3超标率由2014年的1.9%上升到2018年的14.0%.2016年起，O3污染出现时间由7月提前至5月.④GAM模型拟合结果表明，气温、气压、日照时数和相对湿度与O3浓度有显著的非线性关系，各因子平滑函数拟合曲线形态差异较大，其中气温和日照时数主要呈正向影响，气压和相对湿度主要呈负向影响.降水量的影响主要表现在夏季，风速的影响不明显.西安市在气温>24℃、气压<962 hPa、日照时数>9 h、相对湿度为36%~65%且无雨时，O3污染较易发生. |
| 英文摘要 |
| Based on the ozone monitoring data from 2014 to 2018, we presented the variation of ozone concentration in Xi'an and revealed the effects of ozone concentration by meteorological factors based on the generalized additive model (GAM). The results showed that ① with increasing ozone concentration year by year, the assessment standard of ozone pollution was overtaken by three consecutive years since 2016. However, the rising trend was slowed down since 2017 as a result of the strengthened pollution control during summer. ② The monthly curve of ozone concentration was presented as a reversed "V" model with a rising trend accompanying the rising temperature from January to July and a decreasing one during the rest of the year, peaking in July in terms of average monthly ozone concentration. However, this model would turn into an "M" in years with high precipitation when the valley witnessed the highest precipitation in a month. ③ The ozone pollution increased from the year 2014 to 2018 with a stretch-forward ozone polluted time. Furthermore, the rates of ozone non-attainment increased from 1.9% in 2014 to 14% in 2018. In addition, the time ozone pollution emerged advanced from July to May. ④ Based on the GAM model, ozone concentration was non-colinearly related to temperature, air pressure, sunshine duration, and relative humidity. However, the curves of these factors varied considerably, with a positive influence of temperature and sunshine duration and a negative influence of air pressure and relative humidity. The influence of precipitation was mainly witnessed in summers, while no influence of wind was observed. Furthermore, ozone pollution can be easily triggered under the following conditions:temperature>24℃, air pressure <962 hPa, sunshine duration>9 h, and a relative humidity 36%-65% with no rain. |
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