| 基于不确定性分析的垃圾焚烧烟气中重金属的土壤沉积及生态风险评估 |
| 摘要点击 2588 全文点击 11073 投稿时间：2013-10-16 修订日期：2014-01-21 |
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| 中文关键词 CALPUFF模式 重金属 潜在生态危害指数法 Monte Carlo模拟 生态风险评估 |
| 英文关键词 CALPUFF model heavy metals potential ecological risk index method Monte Carlo simulation ecological risk assessment |
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| 中文摘要 |
| 采用CALPUFF模式模拟某城市垃圾焚烧烟气中重金属Pb和Cd的地面大气浓度，并借助土壤浓度模型以Monte Carlo模拟不确定性处理方法估算重金属经沉降在土壤中的累积，最后利用潜在生态危害指数法对重金属在土壤中的长期累积量进行生态风险评估. 结果表明，Pb和Cd的大气浓度最大值分别为5.59×10-3μg·m-3和5.57×10-4μg·m-3，土壤浓度增量中值最大分别为2.26 mg·kg-1和0.21 mg·kg-1；高生态风险区集中在焚烧炉附近的下风向地区，生态风险主要由Cd贡献，Pb基本无污染风险；城市最大污染点达较高生态危害水平概率为55.30%，农村最大污染点达中等生态危害水平概率达72.92%. 此外，对土壤浓度模型的参数进行敏感性分析表明，城、乡区域模拟结果分别对土壤混合厚度和干沉降速率敏感性最强. |
| 英文摘要 |
| The CALPUFF model was applied to simulate the ground-level atmospheric concentrations of Pb and Cd from municipal solid waste incineration (MSWI) plants, and the soil concentration model was used to estimate soil concentration increments after atmospheric deposition based on Monte Carlo simulation, then ecological risk assessment was conducted by the potential ecological risk index method. The results showed that the largest atmospheric concentrations of Pb and Cd were 5.59×10-3 μg·m-3 and 5.57×10-4 μg·m-3, respectively, while the maxima of soil concentration incremental medium of Pb and Cd were 2.26 mg·kg-1 and 0.21 mg·kg-1, respectively; High risk areas were located next to the incinerators, Cd contributed the most to the ecological risk, and Pb was basically free of pollution risk; Higher ecological hazard level was predicted at the most polluted point in urban areas with a 55.30% probability, while in rural areas, the most polluted point was assessed to moderate ecological hazard level with a 72.92% probability. In addition, sensitivity analysis of calculation parameters in the soil concentration model was conducted, which showed the simulated results of urban and rural area were most sensitive to soil mix depth and dry deposition rate, respectively. |
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