| 基于LEAP模型的安徽省能源需求与碳排放预测 |
| 摘要点击 277 全文点击 51 投稿时间：2024-06-30 修订日期：2024-09-18 |
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| 中文关键词 能源需求 碳排放 LEAP模型 碳中和 情景预测 |
| 英文关键词 energy demand carbon emissions LEAP model carbon neutrality scenario prediction |
| DOI 10.13227/j.hjkx.202406287 |
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| 中文摘要 |
| 中国是全球最大的能源消费及碳排放国家,而安徽作为中国的能源大省,探究其高效降碳路径对中国实现碳中和目标具有重要意义. 基于安徽省的经济与社会发展预测数据,构建LEAP-Anhui模型对安徽省未来能源需求和碳排放情况进行深入分析,探究各行业节能减排最优路径. 结果表明：①至2060年,在基准情景下,安徽省能源需求总量为205 Mt,碳排放总量为177 Mt,未达到碳中和目标. 在综合情景下,安徽省能源需求总量为139 Mt,碳排放总量为87 Mt,于2059年达到碳中和目标；②在能源需求方面,工业结构调整情景使工业能源需求降至102.98 Mt,建筑节能情景使建筑业能源需求稳步下降至3.07 Mt,低碳生活情景使居民生活对能源的需求量降至13.26 Mt,电气加速情景使电力转换部门煤炭能源需求降至11.44 Mt；③在碳排放方面,工业能效提升情景使工业碳排放大幅下降至64.42 Mt,建筑节能情景使建筑业碳排放稳步下降至2.29 Mt,新能源汽车推广情景使交通业碳排放降低至4.54 Mt,低碳生活情景使居民生活碳排放降至12.28 Mt,电气加速情景使电力转换部门碳排放降至13.2 Mt. 研究结果对助推“双碳”战略的实现具有重要意义. |
| 英文摘要 |
| China is the world's largest energy consuming and carbon emitting country, and exploring the efficient carbon reduction path of Anhui, as a major energy province in China, is of great significance for China to achieve its carbon neutrality goals. Based on the economic and social development forecast data of Anhui Province, a LEAP-Anhui model is constructed to conduct in-depth analysis of the future energy demand and carbon emissions in Anhui Province and explore the optimal path for energy conservation and emission reduction in various industries. The results showed that： ① By 2060, under the baseline scenario, the total energy demand in Anhui Province was predicted to be 205 Mt, and the total carbon emissions would be 177 Mt, failing to achieve the carbon neutrality target. In a comprehensive scenario, the total energy demand in Anhui Province would be 139 Mt, and the total carbon emissions would be 87 Mt, aiming to achieve carbon neutrality by 2059. ② In terms of energy demand, the industrial restructuring scenario reduced the industrial energy demand to 102.98 Mt, the building energy-saving scenario steadily reduced the energy demand in the construction industry to 3.07 Mt, the low-carbon living scenario reduced the energy demand for residents to 13.26 Mt, and the electrical acceleration scenario reduced the coal energy demand in the power conversion sector to 11.44 Mt. ③ In terms of carbon emissions, the industrial energy efficiency improvement scenario significantly reduced industrial carbon emissions to 64.42 Mt, the building energy efficiency scenario steadily reduced construction industry carbon emissions to 2.29 Mt, the new energy vehicle promotion scenario reduced transportation industry carbon emissions to 4.54 Mt, the low-carbon living scenario reduced residential carbon emissions to 12.28 Mt, and the electrical acceleration scenario reduced power conversion sector carbon emissions to 13.2 Mt. The research results are of great significance in promoting the implementation of the “dual carbon” strategy. |
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