| 外部性视阈下湖南省水稻生产净碳汇时空演绎及驱动因素分析 |
| 摘要点击 224 全文点击 51 投稿时间：2024-07-01 修订日期：2024-10-16 |
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| 中文关键词 外部性 水稻净碳汇 时空演绎 驱动因素 生态转型 |
| 英文关键词 externalities net carbon sink in rice spatiotemporal evolution driving factors ecological transition |
| DOI 10.13227/j.hjkx.202407016 |
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| 中文摘要 |
| 水稻生产对环境的影响研究主要集中于生态系统服务功能和面源污染,较少从外部性视阈研究净碳汇,对其评估有助于水稻生产的生态转型和“双碳”目标的实现. 基于2000~2021年湖南省14个地级市的面板数据,采用标准差椭圆和趋势面分析探索水稻生产净碳汇的时空演变,通过地理探测器和时空地理加权回归模型（GTWR）探寻其驱动因素. 结果表明：①在研究期内,湖南省水稻净碳汇呈“先降后波动上升”的变化趋势,总体增长率为14.17%. 水稻生产发达区域的净碳汇变化趋势更接近整体. ②净碳汇空间分布呈“西北-东南”格局,总体上向西北移动,显示出稳定性和集中性. ③自2010年起,净碳汇呈现“南北高,东西低”的态势,区域差异性增强. ④经济、社会、技术和自然因素均影响水稻净碳汇,其中农业财政支持和机械化水平是主要因素,其解释力均超0.677,交互效应更强. ⑤净碳汇受驱动因素变化影响,表现出显著的空间异质性. 建议制定因地制宜政策,优化财政支持,改善灌溉技术,关注驱动因素变化,促进区域合作. 通过创新减碳增汇措施,实现水稻产业可持续发展. |
| 英文摘要 |
| The environmental impact of rice production has predominantly been studied in terms of ecosystem service functions and non-point source pollution, with limited research addressing net carbon sinks through the lens of externalities. Assessing this dimension is crucial for facilitating the ecological transition of rice production and achieving the “dual carbon goals.” Utilizing panel data from 14 prefecture-level cities in Hunan Province spanning 2000 to 2021, this study employs standard deviation ellipse and trend surface analysis to investigate the spatiotemporal dynamics of net carbon sinks in rice production. Geographic detectors and geographically and temporally weighted regression were applied to identify the driving factors. The findings revealed that： ① Throughout the study period, the net carbon sink in Hunan Province's rice production exhibited a pattern of “initial decline followed by fluctuating increase,” with an overall growth rate of 14.17%. Regions with advanced rice production showed trends more closely aligned with the overall pattern. ② The spatial distribution of the net carbon sink followed a “northwest-southeast” orientation, generally shifting northwestward, indicating stability and concentration. ③ Since 2010, the net carbon sink has displayed a “high in the north and south, low in the east and west” configuration, with increasing regional disparities. ④ Economic, social, technological, and natural factors all impacted the net carbon sink of rice, with agricultural financial support and mechanization level being the primary determinants, each accounting for over 0.667 of the variance, and exhibiting strong interaction effects. ⑤ The net carbon sink was significantly influenced by variations in driving factors, demonstrating marked spatial heterogeneity. Formulating location-specific policies, optimizing fiscal support, improving irrigation techniques, monitoring changes in driving factors, and promoting regional cooperation are recommended. Through innovative carbon reduction and sequestration measures, the sustainable development of the rice industry can be achieved. |
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