| 河南省农业减污降碳协同效应及其驱动因素 |
| 摘要点击 321 全文点击 52 投稿时间：2024-07-19 修订日期：2024-09-09 |
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| 中文关键词 农业碳排放 农业面源污染 协同效应 GTWR模型 驱动因素 |
| 英文关键词 agricultural carbon emissions agricultural surface pollution synergistic effects GTWR model driving force |
| DOI 10.13227/j.hjkx.202407209 |
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| 中文摘要 |
| 在“双碳”目标和塑造农业绿色发展新优势背景下,为以河南省等粮食主产区为主体的农业集聚区域,探索出农业绿色低碳转型和高质量可持续发展提供实证参考和政策建议. 基于耦合协调模型,采用GTWR模型探究两者协同度及其驱动因素的影响机制和时空异质性,以期将减污和降碳作为一项共同目标来推进河南省农业绿色低碳可持续发展. 结果表明,河南省2010~2022年间农业碳排放和农业面源污染排放量呈现先缓慢增加,后缓慢下降又逐渐平稳的趋势,时空异质性明显；河南省2010~2022年间农业碳排放和农业面源污染协同度具有缓慢降低和极化现象减弱的趋势,各地区协同度差异化减小；农业集聚水平和耕地规模化程度呈现负向调节作用,城镇化率呈现正向调节作用,农业产业结构、作物种植结构和有效灌溉率的调节作用空间差异明显,正负影响均有分布,对于河南省粮食种植区域多呈现正向驱动作用. 此外,财政支农力度的回归系数负值区集中在河南省中部,对于河南省中部农业减污降碳具有显著负向驱动作用. 河南省农业碳排放和农业面源污染协同度较高,空间异质性较强,各驱动因素对协同效应的影响地区差异明显,应因地制宜开展废弃资源再利用、加强农业技术创新和制定差异化减污降碳政策,推动农业绿色高质量发展,助力“双碳”目标的实现. |
| 英文摘要 |
| In the context of the “dual-carbon” goal and shaping of new advantages in green agricultural development, empirical references and policy recommendations are provided for agricultural agglomeration regions, mainly in grain-producing areas such as Henan Province, to explore the green, low-carbon transformation and high-quality sustainable development of agriculture. Based on the coupled coordination model, the GTWR model was used to explore the influence mechanism and spatiotemporal heterogeneity of the two synergies and their drivers, with a view to promoting the green, low-carbon and sustainable development of agriculture in Henan Province by taking pollution reduction and carbon reduction as a common goal. The results showed that： Between 2010 and 2022, agricultural carbon emissions and agricultural surface pollution emissions in Henan Province showed a slow increase, followed by a slow decline and a gradual stabilization trend, with obvious spatial and temporal heterogeneity. Between 2010 and 2022, the synergistic degree of agricultural carbon emissions and agricultural surface pollution in Henan Province had a trend of slow decrease and weakening of the polarization phenomenon, and the synergistic degree of differentiation in various regions decreased. The level of agricultural concentration and the degree of scale of cultivated land showed a negative regulatory effect, the urbanization rate showed a positive regulatory effect, and the positive and negative effects were distributed. The level of agricultural agglomeration and the degree of scale of arable land showed a negative regulatory effect； the urbanization rate showed a positive regulatory effect； the agricultural industry structure, crop planting structure, and effective irrigation rate of the regulatory effect of the spatial difference was obvious； and the positive and negative impacts were distributed. For the grain growing regions in Henan Province, a more positive driving effect was observed. In addition, the negative value of the regression coefficient of financial support for agriculture was concentrated in the central part of Henan Province, which had a significant negative driving effect on agricultural pollution reduction and carbon reduction in the central part of Henan Province. Agricultural carbon emissions and agricultural surface pollution in Henan Province had a high degree of synergy and strong spatial heterogeneity, and the regional differences in the impact of the driving factors on the synergistic effect were obvious. Thus, we should carry out the reuse of waste resources, strengthen agricultural technological innovation, and formulate differentiated pollution reduction and carbon reduction policies according to the local conditions, so as to promote the green and high-quality development of agriculture and to help achieve the “dual-carbon” goal. |
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