| 中国农业净碳汇的时空分异及耦合特征分析：以2000~2022年为例 |
| 摘要点击 330 全文点击 61 投稿时间：2024-07-03 修订日期：2024-09-19 |
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| 中文关键词 农业净碳汇 时序演进 空间集聚 耦合关系 农业绿色发展 空间分析 |
| 英文关键词 agricultural net carbon sink time series evolution spatial agglomeration coupling relationship agricultural green development spatial analysis |
| DOI 10.13227/j.hjkx.202407038 |
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| 中文摘要 |
| 低碳农业是中国践行农业绿色转型和构建生态文明重要抓手之一,农业净碳汇在这一过程中发挥着重要作用. 以中国31省（市、自治区）为单元,选取2000~2022年数据,围绕“时序、空间和耦合”这3个维度进行多角度讨论：一方面构建新的核算体系对农业净碳汇进行再核算,深入挖掘细化其时序及空间特征；另一方面在基础上进一步构建“环境-经济”耦合指数,分阶段分地区地剖析关系. 结果表明：①观察发现中国整体农业碳排放波动减少,而农业碳汇持续扩张,农业净碳汇稳定增长. 省际间农业净碳汇分散化分布,净碳汇量省际差距有扩大趋势. ②农业净碳汇有一定的区域聚集特征,并形成了两个明显的“增长区”. 一是以山东和河南作为核心,河北、安徽和江苏等作为周边辐射区的传统增长区域；二是由黑龙江、吉林和辽宁所组成的东北新兴增长区. ③农业净碳汇具有明显的空间正相关性,但有逐年减弱趋势,同时空间上以“低-低”形式聚集的地区增多. ④2000~2022年,农业净碳汇与农业经济增长的耦合关系向好,多数省份从弱脱钩或强脱钩状态转变为扩张负脱钩,其中浙江、福建、云南、甘肃、新疆和内蒙古这六省（自治区）的转变最为明显. 总体上,农业净碳汇与农业经济增长未来将长期处于扩张负脱钩或弱脱钩状态,农业碳汇资源储备贡献巨大,但农业经济本身的持续增长面临挑战. |
| 英文摘要 |
| Low-carbon agriculture is crucial for China's agricultural green transformation and the development of an ecological civilization. The net carbon sink of agriculture plays a vital role in this process. Here, we take China's 31 provinces （municipalities and autonomous regions） as the research object, select the data from 2000 to 2022, and discuss them from multiple perspectives around the three dimensions of time series, space, and coupling. Additionally, we constructed an environment-economy coupling index and refined it by phases to analyze the relationship between stages and regions. The study revealed the following： ① China's overall agricultural carbon emissions fluctuated and decreased, while the agricultural carbon sink continued to expand, showing steady growth. ② The net agricultural carbon sink was distributed among provinces, and the gap between provinces in terms of net carbon sink tended to widen. Agricultural net carbon sinks exhibited regional aggregation characteristics, forming two distinct growth areas. The traditional growth area comprised Shandong and Henan as the core and Hebei, Anhui, and Jiangsu as the neighboring radiation areas. The other emerging growth areas in Northeast China included Heilongjiang, Jilin, and Liaoning. ③ The net agricultural carbon sink demonstrated a clear positive spatial correlation. However, a tendency was observed for the spatial correlation to weaken and an increase in the spatial type of low-low form of aggregation over the years. ④ From 2000 to 2022, the coupling relationship between net agricultural carbon sinks and agricultural economic growth improved, with most provinces shifting from weak or strong decoupling to expanding negative decoupling. Six provinces, namely, Zhejiang, Fujian, Yunnan, Gansu, Xinjiang, and Inner Mongolia, have shown the most significant shifts. Overall, the net agricultural carbon sinks and agricultural economic growth are expected to be in a state of negative expansion or weak decoupling for a prolonged period in the future. While the contribution of agricultural carbon sinks to the resource reserve will be substantial, the sustainable growth of the agricultural economy will face challenges. |
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