| 福建省城市群道路交通碳排放时空异质性 |
| 摘要点击 255 全文点击 49 投稿时间：2024-08-08 修订日期：2024-09-26 |
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| 中文关键词 时空地理加权回归模型（GTWR） 地理探测器 碳排放 道路交通 城市群 |
| 英文关键词 geographically and temporally weighted regression model （GTWR） geographical detector carbon emissions road transportation urban agglomerations |
| DOI 10.13227/j.hjkx.202408058 |
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| 中文摘要 |
| 在中国城市化和地区发展差异的背景下,不同城市的交通碳排放表现出时空异质性. 尽管已有研究关注道路交通碳排放,但对东南沿海城市群,尤其是福建省的研究较少. 选取福建省作为研究对象,基于标准差椭圆揭示福建省城市群碳排放在时间和空间上的分布特征. 此外,采用时空地理加权回归模型（GTWR）和地理探测器探明城市化水平（UR）、基础设施水平（IR）、客运量（PV）、货运量（FV）以及人均GDP（APGDP）这5个驱动因素对福建省辖内城市的道路交通碳排放的交互作用和时空异质性. 结果表明,福建省城市群的道路交通碳排放量在过去20 a间持续增长,年均增长率达到10.355%,且碳排放的空间分布呈现出明显的“东北-西南”走向；其次,碳排放重心在研究期内均位于福建省泉州市内,且碳排放方位角呈逆时针趋势,持续向“东北-西南”方向转变；再次,单驱动因素的时空异质性结果显示,APGDP对城市群道路交通碳排放主要起正向驱动作用；而UR、IR、PV和FV则在不同城市内起抑制或促进作用；最后,地理探测器的双驱动因素的交互作用结果显示,IR∩UR、IR∩PV、IR∩FV和IR∩APGDP交互作用对福建省城市群的道路交通碳排放时空异质性的贡献最大. 研究为揭示城市群的交通碳排放差异提供了新的视角,对于推动区域交通的低碳转型具有重要意义. |
| 英文摘要 |
| In the context of urbanization and regional development differences in China, transportation carbon emissions in different cities show spatiotemporal heterogeneity. Although previous studies have primarily focused on carbon emissions from road transportation, research specifically examining the southeast coastal urban agglomerations in China, particularly Fujian Province, is lacking. Thus, this study selected Fujian Province as the research object and revealed the temporal and spatial distribution characteristics of carbon emissions in the urban agglomeration of Fujian Province based on the standard deviation ellipse （SDE）. Furthermore, the geographically and temporally weighted regression model （GTWR） and geographical detector were employed to examine the interaction and spatiotemporal heterogeneity of five driving factors, namely urbanization rate （UR）, infrastructure rate （IR）, passenger volume （PV）, freight volume （FV）, and per capita GDP （APGDP）, on road traffic carbon emissions in cities within Fujian Province. The results show that the road transportation carbon emissions in Fujian urban agglomeration have continued to grow over the past 20 years, with an average annual growth rate of 10.355%, and the spatial distribution of carbon emissions showed a significant “northeast-southwest” trend. Secondly, the carbon emissions focus during the research period was consistently located in Quanzhou City, Fujian Province, and the direction of carbon emissions showed a counterclockwise trend, continuously shifting towards the “northeast-southwest” direction. Furthermore, the spatiotemporal heterogeneity results of single driving factors indicated that APGDP played a predominantly positive role in driving road traffic carbon emissions in urban agglomerations, while UR, IR, PV, and FV had inhibitory or promoting effects within different cities. Lastly, the interaction results of dual driving factors from geographical detectors revealed that IR∩UR, IR∩PV, IR∩FV, and IR∩APGDP had the greatest contribution to the spatiotemporal heterogeneity of road traffic carbon emissions in Fujian Province's urban agglomerations. This study provides a new perspective for understanding differences in transportation-related carbon emissions among urban agglomerations and is significant for promoting low-carbon transformation in regional transportation. |
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