| 中国交通基础设施、经济增长与碳排放的脱钩效应及互动关系分析 |
| 摘要点击 237 全文点击 49 投稿时间：2024-08-28 修订日期：2024-10-15 |
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| 中文关键词 交通基础设施 经济增长 碳排放 脱钩 PVAR模型 |
| 英文关键词 transportation infrastructure economic growth carbon emissions decoupling panel vector autoregression （PVAR） model |
| DOI 10.13227/j.hjkx.202408256 |
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| 中文摘要 |
| 交通基础设施建设在拉动经济增长的同时也面临着碳排放压力的挑战,厘清交通基础设施、经济增长与碳排放三者之间的关系对推进“双碳”目标的实现具有重要意义. 基于2002~2021年中国30个省域的面板数据,将研究期划分为4个阶段（2002~2006年、2007~2011年、2012~2016年和2017~2021年）,运用Tapio脱钩模型对碳排放与交通基础设施和经济增长之间的脱钩状态进行分析,并利用面板向量自回归（PVAR）模型对各地区三者之间的动态关系及内在影响机制进行研究. 结果表明：①中国碳排放与交通基础设施的脱钩关系整体上呈现“弱脱钩→强负脱钩→强脱钩→弱脱钩”的变动特征；②30个省域碳排放与经济增长的脱钩关系在4个阶段只表现为强脱钩、弱脱钩、增长连接和扩张负脱钩这4种状态,本研究期内整体脱钩状态好转,但碳排放脱钩形势较不稳定；③各地区交通基础设施对经济增长,以及交通基础设施和经济增长对碳排放均具有正向促进作用,但不同地区影响程度存在差异. 研究结果可为交通基础设施建设提供低碳发展策略,助力中国经济平稳健康可持续发展. |
| 英文摘要 |
| The construction of transportation infrastructure boosts economic growth while facing the challenge of carbon emissions pressure. Clarifying the relationship among transportation infrastructure, economic growth, and carbon emissions is important in order to promote the realization of the goal of “dual-carbon.” Based on the panel data of 30 provinces in China from 2002 to 2021, the research period was divided into four stages （2002-2006, 2007-2011, 2012-2016, and 2017-2021）. The Tapio decoupling model was used to analyze the decoupling state between carbon emissions and transportation infrastructure, as well as between carbon emissions and economic growth, and the panel vector autoregression （PVAR） model was used to study the dynamic relationship and internal influence mechanism among the three in each region. The results showed that： ① The overall decoupling relationship between carbon emissions and transportation infrastructure in China showed the changing trend of “weak decoupling → strong negative decoupling → strong decoupling → weak decoupling.” ② The decoupling relationship between carbon emissions and economic growth in 30 provinces only showed four states in the four stages： strong decoupling, weak decoupling, expansive coupling, and expansive negative decoupling. During the research period, the decoupling index between carbon emissions and economic growth decreased in most provinces of China, and the overall decoupling state improved, but the carbon emissions decoupling situation was unstable. ③ Transportation infrastructure had a positive impact on economic growth in each region, and both transportation infrastructure and economic growth had a positive impact on carbon emissions in each region, but the degree of impact varied by region. The results of the research can provide low-carbon development strategies for the construction of transportation infrastructure and help promote the stable, healthy, and sustainable development of China's economy. |
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