| 基于FLUS-InVEST模型的淮南市土地覆盖模拟与碳储量评估 |
| 摘要点击 391 全文点击 62 投稿时间：2024-09-03 修订日期：2024-11-19 |
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| 中文关键词 FLUS模型 InVEST模型 土地利用 碳储量 多情景模拟 |
| 英文关键词 FLUS model InVEST model land use carbon storage multi-scenario simulation |
| DOI 10.13227/j.hjkx.202409033 |
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| 中文摘要 |
| 为探究土地利用变化对碳储量的影响,以淮南市为例,运用未来土地利用模拟（FLUS）模型模拟2030年惯性发展情景、耕地保护情景和生态优先情景土地利用空间分布,结合生态系统服务和权衡的综合评估（InVEST）模型估算1990年、2000年、2010年、2020年和2030年的3种情景碳储量. 结果表明：①淮南市土地类型主要为耕地,面积占比可达75%以上. 1990~2020年淮南市耕地、草地和林地面积持续减少,建筑面积不断增加,地类转移主要由耕地转为建筑用地. 与其它情景相比,耕地保护情景能够更好地促进耕地面积的增加,且能很好的抑制建筑用地的扩张； ②1990~2020年淮南市碳储量减少了8.29×105 t,呈持续减少的趋势,耕地是淮南市主要的碳库,耕地转为建筑用地是导致淮南市碳储量减少的主要原因； ③淮南市2030年惯性发展情景、耕地保护情景和生态优先情景下碳储量分别为50 766×103、50 822.21×103和50 597.95×103 t. 3种情景下的碳储量较2020年均有所下降；其中,耕地保护情景对于碳储量减少的抑制效果最为显著. 未来可考虑重点保护耕地. |
| 英文摘要 |
| To explore the impact of land use change on carbon storage, taking Huainan City as an example, the future land use simulation （FLUS） model was used to simulate the spatial distribution of land use in 2030 under the inertia development scenario, farmland protection scenario, and ecological priority scenario. By combining this result with the integrated valuation of ecosystem services and trade-offs （InVEST） model, the carbon storage of the three scenarios in 1990, 2000, 2010, 2020, and 2030 was estimated. The study produced the following results： ① The main land type in Huainan City is cropland, which accounts for more than 75% of the total area. From 1990 to 2020, the area of cropland, grassland, and forest land in Huainan City continued to decrease, while the area of construction land continued to increase. The main land type transfer was the conversion of cropland to construction land. Compared with the other scenarios, the farmland protection scenario can better promote the increase of farmland area and effectively suppress the expansion of construction land. ② From 1990 to 2020, the carbon storage in Huainan City decreased by 8.29×105 t, with a continuous decreasing trend. Cropland was the main carbon reservoir in Huainan City, and the conversion of cropland to construction land was the main reason for the decrease in carbon storage in Huainan City. ③ The carbon stocks in Huainan City under the 2030 inertia development scenario, cropland protection scenario, and ecological priority scenario are 50 766×103, 50 822.21×103, and 50 597.95×103 t, respectively. The carbon storage decreases compared to the level in 2020 under the three scenarios, among which the cropland protection scenario has the most significant inhibitory effect on the reduction of carbon storage. In the future, prioritizing the protection of cropland should be considered. |
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