| 基于PLUS-InVEST-GeoDetector模型的黄河中游碳储量时空变化及驱动因素 |
| 摘要点击 493 全文点击 96 投稿时间：2024-06-17 修订日期：2024-09-20 |
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| 中文关键词 碳储量 InVEST模型 PLUS模型 土地利用 黄河中游 地理探测器 |
| 英文关键词 carbon storage InVEST model PLUS model land use middle reaches of the Yellow River GeoDetector |
| DOI 10.13227/j.hjkx.202406176 |
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| 中文摘要 |
| “双碳”战略背景下,研究黄河中游碳储量的时空变化特征及其驱动因素,对实现区域生态保护与可持续发展具有重要意义. 基于5 a间隔选取黄河中游2000~2020年5期土地利用数据,耦合PLUS-InVEST-GeoDetector模型估算并分析碳储量的时空演变特征,并探讨影响碳储量时空分异的驱动因素,最后在自然发展、生态保护、经济发展和耕地保护这4种发展情景下对2030年黄河中游碳储量进行预测. 结果表明：①2000~2020年黄河中游碳储量呈持续增长趋势,增长了5.75×107 t,空间分布演化较为平稳,呈现“东南高于西北”的空间分布特征. ②2000~2020年,NDVI是黄河中游碳储量时空分异的主要驱动因子,各驱动因子交互探测均呈现双因子增强和非线性增强作用. ③2020~2030年黄河中游4种情景的碳储量较2020年均呈增加趋势,其中生态保护情景碳储量增加最多,为3.93×107 t,经济发展情景碳储量增加最少,为4.8×106 t. 研究结果将为黄河中游的长期发展和生态环境管理提供一定的数据支撑. |
| 英文摘要 |
| Studying the temporal and spatial variation characteristics and driving factors of carbon reserves in the middle reaches of the Yellow River is crucial for achieving sustainable development and regional ecological conservation against the backdrop of the “double carbon” plan. Based on the five-year interval, the land use data of the middle reaches of the Yellow River from 2000 to 2020 were selected, and the spatio-temporal evolution characteristics of carbon reserves were estimated and analyzed by coupling with the PLUS-InVEST-GeoDetector model, and the driving factors affecting the spatio-temporal differentiation of carbon reserves were discussed. Finally, the carbon reserves of the middle reaches of the Yellow River in 2030 were predicted under four developmental scenarios： natural development, ecological protection, economic development, and cultivated land protection. The findings indicate that： ① The middle reaches of the Yellow River's carbon storage showed a consistent growth trend between 2000 and 2020, exhibiting an increase by 5.75×107 t. The evolution of the spatial distribution was reasonably stable, exhibiting the characteristics of “southeast is higher than northwest.” ② The middle reaches of the Yellow River's carbon storage differentiated both spatially and temporally between 2000 and 2020, with two-factor enhancement and nonlinear enhancement observed in the interaction detection of each driving element. The main driving force was the NDVI. ③ From 2020 to 2030, the carbon storage of the four scenarios in the Yellow River's middle reaches showed an increasing trend in comparison to that in 2020. Of them, the carbon storage of the ecological preservation scenario rose the highest at 3.93×107 t, while the carbon storage of the economic growth scenario increased the least at 4.8×106 t. The findings of the study will offer some evidence in favor of the middle reaches of the Yellow River's long-term development and ecological environment management. |
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