| 多情景模拟下滇东南喀斯特地区生态系统服务评估与网络优化 |
| 摘要点击 115 全文点击 5 投稿时间：2024-06-13 修订日期：2024-08-28 |
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| 中文关键词 土地利用 PLUS模型 生态系统服务 生态源地 生态网络 |
| 英文关键词 land use PLUS model ecosystem services ecological source ecological network |
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| 中文摘要 |
| 全球气候变化和经济增长改变了土地利用结构，影响了生态系统服务和空间分布，滇东南喀斯特地区因其脆弱生态环境和多样土地利用成为重点研究区域. 通过多情景模拟，评估该地区未来土地利用变化对生态系统服务的影响并优化生态网络，对于加强喀斯特生态脆弱区的生态安全屏障和维护可持续发展具有重要意义. 以滇东南喀斯特地区为研究区，基于2000~2020年土地利用数据，采用PLUS模型模拟SSP126（可持续发展）、SSP245（自然增长）和SSP585（城市扩张）这3种未来情景下2035年的土地利用格局，利用InVEST模型评估区域典型生态系统服务，并分析不同情景下的区域生态网络格局及其演变特征. 结果表明：①滇东南喀斯特地区的土地利用类型主要为林地、耕地和草地. 2000~2020年间，土地利用转移面积为6 002.55 km2，林地、草地和耕地的转移最为剧烈. 2035年，不同情景下土地利用变化的强度和格局存在显著差异；②相较于2020年，2035年3种情景下的产水量和土壤保持呈增加态势，而生境质量和固碳储存呈下降趋势. 其中，SSP126情景下产水量和土壤保持的增益幅度高于SSP245和SSP585情景，且生境质量和固碳储存的损失最低；③滇东南喀斯特地区的生态源地主要集中在东部和南部地区，生态网络多呈东西走向. 2035年，不同情景下的生态源地面积均呈增加趋势，生态网络的复杂度和连通性有所提高；④未来可基于“一屏三带多点”的生态网络优化策略，因地制宜地开展生态工程建设，增强东西生态廊道的连接以及南北生态廊道的建设. 研究结果可为滇东南喀斯特地区的生态保护优化和国土空间治理提供了科学建议. |
| 英文摘要 |
| Global climate change and economic growth have altered land use structures， impacting ecosystem services and spatial distributions. The Southeast Yunnan karst region， with its fragile ecological environment and diverse land use types， has become a focal area of research. Utilizing multi-scenario simulations， this study evaluates the impacts of future land use changes on ecosystem services and optimizes the ecological network， aiming to provide scientific guidance for regional ecological protection and sustainable development. Taking the Southeast Yunnan karst regions as the study area， land use data from 2000 to 2020 was analyzed. The Patch-generating Land Use Simulation （PLUS） model was employed to simulate land use patterns under three future scenarios for 2035： SSP126 （sustainable development）， SSP245 （natural growth）， and SSP585 （urban expansion）. The Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Trade-offs （InVEST） model was used to assess typical regional ecosystem services， and the spatial and temporal dynamics of ecological networks under different scenarios were analyzed. The results indicated that： ① The primary land use types in the Southeast Yunnan karst region were forests， croplands， and grasslands. From 2000 to 2020， the land use transfer area was 6 002.55 km2， with significant transfers among forests， grasslands， and croplands. By 2035， land use changes were projected to exhibit significant differences in intensity and pattern under the different scenarios. ② Compared with 2020， water yield and soil retention were projected to increase by 20 135 under all three scenarios， whereas habitat quality and carbon storage were expected to decline. The SSP126 scenario showed the highest gains in water yield and soil retention， with the least losses in habitat quality and carbon storage compared to those in the SSP245 and SSP585 scenarios. ③ Ecological source areas were mainly concentrated in the eastern and southern regions of Southeast Yunnan， with ecological networks predominantly oriented east-west. By 2035， the area of ecological source regions is expected to increase across all scenarios， enhancing the complexity and connectivity of the ecological network. ④ Future strategies should be based on the “one screen， three belts， and multiple nodes” optimization approach， implementing targeted ecological engineering projects to strengthen east-west corridors and develop north-south corridors. These findings provide scientific recommendations for ecological protection optimization and territorial spatial governance in the karst area of Southeast Yunnan. |
