| 长江经济带能源绿色低碳转型与减污降碳协同效应时空演进及地区差异 |
| 摘要点击 105 全文点击 6 投稿时间：2024-06-15 修订日期：2024-09-07 |
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| 中文关键词 减污降碳 能源绿色低碳转型 协同效应 泰尔指数 空间马尔科夫链 |
| 英文关键词 pollution reduction and carbon reduction green and low-carbon energy transformation synergistic effect Theil index spatial Markov chain |
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| 中文摘要 |
| 减污降碳协同增效是促进经济社会发展全面绿色转型的总抓手，能源则是绿色转型的重要主战场. 深入探讨能源绿色低碳转型与减污降碳的战略内涵，构建能源绿色低碳转型和减污降碳评价指标体系，综合运用熵权法、核密度估计、复合系统协同度模型、Theil指数以及空间Markov链方法，实证分析2010~2022年长江经济带能源绿色低碳转型与减污降碳协同效应的地区差异及动态演进特征. 结果表明：①能源绿色低碳转型指数和减污降碳指数均呈现稳步增长趋势，各省市间能源绿色低碳转型水平差距逐渐扩大，减污降碳水平差距先缩小后扩大. ②能源绿色低碳转型与减污降碳协同发展水平显著增长，协同等级整体呈现从轻度不协同转向轻度协同又向中度协同发展的动态过程，空间上“两边高中间低”的分布局面逐渐显现. ③协同水平的总体差异呈现先上升后下降的趋势，贡献率显示2017年以前主要源于区域内差异，2018年以后主要源于区域间差异；分地区差异值整体呈现：中游地区>上游地区>下游地区. ④低协同水平的邻域会对本地区协同类型发展产生一定阻碍，较高水平协同度的邻域对本地具有拉动作用. 最后，提出加大低协同水平地区的政策倾斜和技术支持、强化高协同水平地区的辐射示范作用等建议. |
| 英文摘要 |
| The synergistic enhancement of pollution and carbon reductions serves as a primary lever for promoting the comprehensive green transformation of economic and social development， with energy being a crucial battleground for this green transition. In this study， we conduct an in-depth exploration of the strategic implications of green and low-carbon energy transition and pollution and carbon reductions. We construct an evaluation index system for green and low-carbon energy transition and pollution and carbon reductions. We employ a combination of the entropy weight method， Kernel density estimation， composite system synergy model， Theil index， and spatial Markov chain methods to empirically analyze the regional disparities and dynamic evolutionary characteristics of the synergistic effects of green and low-carbon energy transition and pollution and carbon reductions in the Yangtze River Economic Belt from 2010 to 2022. The results indicated that： ① Both the green and low-carbon energy transition index and the pollution and carbon reduction index have shown a steady growth trend， with the gap in green and low-carbon energy transition levels among provinces gradually widening， while the gap in pollution and carbon reduction levels first narrowed and then widened. ② The level of synergistic development between the green and low-carbon energy transition and pollution and carbon reductions significantly increased， with the overall coordination level demonstrating a dynamic process from mild incoordination to mild coordination and then to moderate coordination and a spatial distribution situation of "high on both sides， low in the middle" gradually emerging regionally. ③ The overall disparity in synergistic levels first rose and then fell， with the contribution rate showing that before 2017， it was mainly due to differences within regions， and after 2018 it was mainly due to differences between regions. The overall difference values by region were as follows： midstream areas > upstream areas > downstream areas. ④ The probability of upward transition was highest for low synergy levels， followed by moderate synergy levels； considering the impact of spatial neighborhood factors， neighborhoods with low synergy levels could hinder the development of local synergy types to some extent， while neighborhoods with higher synergy levels could have a pulling effect on the local area. Finally， some suggestions are put forward， such as increasing the policy inclination and technical support for areas with a low level of synergy and strengthening the radiation demonstration role of areas with high level of synergy. |
