| 旱区资源型城市碳流时空格局及情景模拟 |
| 摘要点击 141 全文点击 14 投稿时间：2024-06-10 修订日期：2024-08-25 |
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| 中文关键词 土地利用和土地覆盖 碳排放 碳储存 碳流 情景模拟 |
| 英文关键词 land use and land cover carbon emission carbon storage carbon flow scenario simulation |
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| 中文摘要 |
| 开展土地利用变化下旱区资源型城市碳储存与碳排放研究，为旱区资源型城市低碳发展提供科学依据. 以旱区资源型城市石嘴山市为例，集成站点观测、样地样品检测、遥感监测和统计数据等多源数据，耦合InVEST和PLUS-Markov模型，分析过去15 a及未来自然发展、耕地保护、生态保护和经济发展这4种情景下石嘴山市土地利用格局、碳排放量、碳储量及碳流量时空演变规律，并利用地理探测器识别碳流的驱动因子. 结果表明：①2005~2020年，石嘴山市土地利用的变化造成碳排放量增加，碳储量减少，净碳流量为负值，碳排放、碳储量以及碳流量的变化与土地利用的空间特征相似. ②2005~2035年，石嘴山市4种情景下的净碳流量均为负值，生态保护情景对抑制净碳流量下降更加明显. ③坡度、DEM、到公路的距离、年平均气温和年均降水量是影响碳流空间分异的主要因子，年平均气温与坡度、坡度与DEM的交互作用显著. 研究结果为黄河“几字弯”资源型城市绿色低碳转型与可持续发展提供借鉴，可为旱区资源型地区低碳城市建设提供科学支撑. |
| 英文摘要 |
| A study on carbon storage and emission in dryland resource cities under land use change was carried out to provide a scientific basis for low-carbon development in dryland resource cities. Taking Shizuishan City， a resource city in the dry zone， as an example， we integrated multi-source data such as station observation， sample testing， remote sensing monitoring， and statistical data. Furthermore， we coupled the InVEST and PLUS-Markov models to analyze the spatial and temporal evolution of land use patterns， carbon emission， carbon storage， and carbon flow in Shizuishan City under the four scenarios of natural development， arable land protection， ecological protection， and economic development in the past 15 years and the future and to identify the driving factors of carbon flow using geoprobes. The results showed that： ① From 2005 to 2020， the change in land use in Shizuishan City caused an increase in carbon emissions， a decrease in carbon stock， and a negative net carbon flow， and changes in carbon emissions， carbon stock， and carbon flow were similar to the spatial characteristics of land use. ② From 2005 to 2035， the net carbon flow under the four scenarios in Shizuishan City was negative， and the ecological protection scenario was more obvious in suppressing the decline of net carbon flow. ③ Slope， DEM， distance to the road， mean annual temperature， and mean annual precipitation were the main factors affecting the spatial differentiation of carbon flow， and the interactions between mean annual temperature and slope as well as slope and DEM were significant. The results of the study provide a reference for the green and low-carbon transformation and sustainable development of resource cities in the "several bends" of the Yellow River and provide scientific support for the construction of low-carbon cities in resource areas in dry zones. |
