| 未来多情景土地利用变化对河南省区域碳储量的影响 |
| 摘要点击 655 全文点击 74 投稿时间：2024-05-18 修订日期：2024-07-27 |
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| 中文关键词 区域碳储量 InVEST模型 PLUS模型 未来多情景 土地利用/覆被变化（LUCC） 河南省 |
| 英文关键词 regional carbon storage InVEST model PLUS model multiple scenarios in the future land use/cover change （LUCC） Henan Province |
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| 中文摘要 |
| 土地利用/覆被变化（LUCC）是影响区域碳储量的重要因素，研究LUCC与碳储量的关系对优化土地管理和改善生态环境有重要意义. 河南省的土地利用状况近年来改变显著，基于土地覆被数据并结合InVEST和PLUS模型，分析了河南省2005~2020年LUCC的时空演变，以及未来2035年3种情景：自然发展情景（Q1）、生态保护情景（Q2）和城镇发展情景（Q3）下的LUCC和区域碳储量发展趋势. 结果表明：①河南省2005~2020年碳储量总体下降了87.47×106 t，不同土地利用类型的碳储量为：农田>林地>草地>建设用地>水域>未利用地，与土地利用类型相匹配；②未来3种情景下河南省6种土地利用类型面积大小为：农田>林地>建设用地>水域>草地>未利用地，建设用地面积在Q1和Q3情景下较Q2增加明显，草地在Q2中较Q1和Q3增加明显，增量主要出现在河南省中部和北部地区；③2035年河南省3种情景下的碳储量总体呈现“Q1减-Q2增-Q3减”的变化趋势，说明生态环境较好的情况下区域碳储量的减少较2020年最少（12.80×106 t），且碳储量较大值分布在河南省的西部、北部省界和南部省界地区. 河南省LUCC与碳储量变化有较好的一致性，因此优化土地利用空间分布，制定合理政策保护草地、林地等将有助于提升区域碳储量，研究结果可以为河南省深入实施可持续发展和实现“双碳”目标提供科学参考. |
| 英文摘要 |
| Land use/cover change （LUCC） is an important factor affecting regional carbon storage. It is of great significance to study the relationship between LUCC and carbon storage for optimizing land management and improving ecological environment. The land use status of Henan Province has changed significantly in recent years. Based on land cover data and combined with InVEST and PLUS model， this study analyzed the spatio-temporal evolution of LUCC in Henan Province from 2005 to 2020， as well as the development trend of LUCC and carbon storage under the natural development scenario （Q1）， ecological protection scenario （Q2）， and urban development scenario （Q3）. The results show that： ① The total carbon storage of Henan Province decreased 87.47×106 t from 2005 to 2020， and the carbon storage of different land use types was as follows： cropland > forest > grassland > urban area > water area > unused land， which was consistent with the size of land types. ② In the future three scenarios， the area of six land use types in Henan Province was as follows： cropland > forest > urban area > water area > grassland > unused land. The construction land area increased obviously in Q1 and Q3 compared with that in Q2， the grassland increased obviously in Q2 compared with that in Q1 and Q3， and the increase mainly occurred in the central and northern parts of Henan Province. ③ The carbon storage under three scenarios in Henan Province showed a trend of “Q1 decreasing- Q2 increasing- Q3 decreasing” in 2035， indicating that the regional carbon storage will decrease by 12.80×106 t compared with that in 2020 under the condition of good ecological environment. Furthermore， the larger carbon storage was distributed in the western， northern， and southern provincial boundaries of Henan Province. There was a good consistency between LUCC and carbon storage change in Henan Province. Therefore， optimizing the spatial distribution of land use and formulating reasonable policies to protect grassland and forest will help to improve regional carbon reserves. This study can provide scientific reference for Henan Province to further implement sustainable development and achieve the goal of “double carbon”. |
