| 生态过渡带三生空间多情景模拟与碳储量评估：以甘肃省为例 |
| 摘要点击 539 全文点击 60 投稿时间：2024-06-17 修订日期：2024-07-23 |
| 查看HTML全文
查看全文 查看/发表评论 下载PDF阅读器 |
| 中文关键词 三生空间（PLES） 多情景模拟 PLUS模型 碳储量 生态过渡带 甘肃省 |
| 英文关键词 production-living-ecological space （PLES） multi-scenario simulation PLUS model carbon storage ecological transition zone Gansu Province |
|
| 中文摘要 |
| 甘肃省是中国生态安全格局中重要的生态安全屏障和生态过渡带，研究其三生空间转型及其碳储量效应对实现低碳视角下国土空间优化与区域可持续发展具有重大意义. 基于甘肃省2000年、2010年和2020年的土地利用数据测度三生空间时空演变特征，利用PLUS 模型模拟自然演化、经济发展和生态优先这3种情景下2030年和2060年三生空间，借助InVEST模型计算其碳储量，揭示甘肃省碳储量对三生空间演变的响应. 结果表明：①生态空间占比最大，分布最广；生活空间占比最小，零散分布，南多北少；生产空间多分布于生活空间附近. 三生空间转型较为剧烈，以“林-田-草-沙”之间的转化为主. ②2030年和2060年3种情景下三生空间与历史时期的空间分布基本相似. 自然演化和经济发展情景下生态空间减少，生态保护情景下生态空间增加. ③2000~2020年碳储量在时间上呈现先减少再增加的倒“U”型趋势. 自然演化和经济发展情景碳储量变化皆呈现出先减少后增加的“U”型趋势，生态保护情景的碳储量呈现持续增长趋势，碳储量在3种情景中最高. ④碳储量高值区和热点区集聚分布在祁连山地、甘南高原和陇南山地等地区，低值区和冷点区主要分布在河西走廊的荒漠和戈壁地区. 3种情境下2060年碳储量空间分布相较于2020年都更为均衡. |
| 英文摘要 |
| Gansu Province is an important ecological security barrier and ecological transition zone in the Chinese ecological security pattern. The study of its production-living-ecological space （PLES） transformation and its carbon storage effect is of great significance for realizing space optimization and regional sustainable development from a low-carbon perspective. Based on the land use data of Gansu Province in 2000， 2010， and 2020， we measured the spatio-temporal evolution characteristics of the PLES. The PLUS model was used to simulate the PLES in 2030 and 2060 under the three scenarios of natural evolution， economic development， and ecological priority， and the InVEST model was used to calculate its carbon storage. The results show that： ① The ecological space occupied the largest proportion and had the widest distribution. The living space occupied the smallest proportion， showing a scattered distribution， with more in the south than in the north. The production space was mostly distributed near the living space. The transformation of PLES was more drastic， mainly the transformation between “forest-field-grass-sand”. ② The spatial distribution of PLES in the three scenarios in 2030 and 2060 was basically similar to that in the historical period. Ecological space decreased under the natural evolution and economic development scenarios and increased under the ecological protection scenarios. ③ From 2000 to 2020， carbon stocks showed a “U” trend of first decreasing and then increasing in time. The change of carbon storage in both the natural evolution and economic development scenarios showed a “U” trend of first decreasing and then increasing， while the carbon storage in the ecological protection scenarios showed a continuous increasing trend， and the carbon storage was the highest among the three scenarios. ④ The high-value and hot-spot areas of carbon storage were concentrated in the Qilian Mountains， Gannan Plateau， and Longnan Mountains， while the low-value and cold-spot areas were mainly distributed in the desert and Gobi areas of the Hexi Corridor. In all three scenarios， the spatial distribution of carbon stocks in 2060 was more balanced than that in 2020. |
