| 基于InVEST-PLUS耦合模型的合肥市生境质量评价及模拟预测 |
| 摘要点击 635 全文点击 78 投稿时间：2024-06-17 修订日期：2024-08-08 |
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| 中文关键词 InVEST模型 PLUS模型 生境质量 评价 预测 |
| 英文关键词 InVEST model PLUS model habitat quality evaluation forecasting |
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| 中文摘要 |
| 分析城市土地利用和生境质量的时空演变特征，对于城市生态环境可持续发展具有重要意义. 基于2012年、2017年和2022年合肥市土地利用数据，应用PLUS模型进行用地扩张因子驱动研究及2032年土地利用模拟预测，并结合InVEST模型分析合肥市生境质量时空演变特征. 结果表明：①合肥市土地利用类型主要包括耕地、建设用地、林地和水体，耕地面积最大；2012~2022年内建设用地面积增加，其余地类面积均减少；预测2032年土地利用变化趋势同2012~2022年基本一致，且都为耕地向建设用地转变. ②高程是影响耕地、林地和水体扩张的主要因子，建设用地扩张主要受到社会经济因素影响，草地及未利用地扩张受坡度影响最大. ③2012~2022年生境质量持续下降，整体水平偏低，高、较高、中等和较低生境质量区域均减少，低生境质量区域增加，预测2032年生境质量仍呈下降趋势. ④2012~2022年耕地转为水体和林地是生境质量正向改善的主要原因，耕地转为建设用地是生境质量下降的主要原因，预测2032年耕地及林地转为建设用地将进一步对生境质量产生负面影响. 未来发展可从开发建设活动控制和生态保护两方面入手. 研究结果可为合肥市生态环境保护与城市发展建设提供科学的决策依据. |
| 英文摘要 |
| Analyzing the spatial and temporal evolution characteristics of land use and habitat quality is important for the sustainable development of urban ecology. Based on the land use data of Hefei City in 2012， 2017， and 2022， the PLUS model was used to conduct an expansion factor-driven study and land use simulation prediction in 2032， combined with the InVEST model to analyze the spatial and temporal evolution characteristics of habitat quality in Hefei City. The results show that： ① Land use types in Hefei City mainly included cropland， construction land， forest land， water bodies， grassland， and unused land， with cropland covering the most area. The area of construction land increased， and the area of the rest of the land use types decreased from 2012 to 2022； the predicted trend of land use changes in 2032 was projected to be basically the same as that from 2012 to 2022， all of which were the shift from cropland to construction land. ② Elevation was the main factor affecting the expansion of cropland， forest land， and water bodies； the expansion of construction land was mainly influenced by socio-economic factors； and the expansion of grassland and unused land was most affected by slope. ③ Habitat quality continued to decline from 2012 to 2022， and the overall level was low， with high， higher， medium， and lower habitat quality areas all decreasing and low habitat quality areas increasing， and it was predicted that habitat quality will still be on a declining trend in 2032. ④ The conversion of cropland to water bodies and forest land was the main reason for positive improvement of habitat quality from 2012-2022， and the conversion of cropland to construction land was the main reason for deterioration of habitat quality. It was predicted that the conversion of cropland and forest land to construction land in 2032 will have further negative impacts on the quality of the habitats. The results of the study can provide scientific decision-making basis for ecological environmental protection and urban development and construction in Hefei. |
