| 中国能源高质量发展的空间溢出效应及驱动因素 |
| 摘要点击 625 全文点击 72 投稿时间：2024-05-28 修订日期：2024-08-08 |
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| 中文关键词 能源高质量发展 空间关联性 空间溢出效应 空间马尔科夫链 Tobit回归模型 |
| 英文关键词 high-quality energy development spatial association spatial spillover effect spatial Markov chain Tobit regression model |
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| 中文摘要 |
| 能源高质量发展是经济高质量发展中的重要一环，对实现“双碳”目标以及应对气候变化具有重要意义. 从“创新、协调、绿色、开放、共享”这5个维度构建能源高质量发展综合评价指标体系，基于熵值法对2011~2021年中国能源高质量发展水平进行测度，采用核密度估计、空间自相关和空间马尔科夫链刻画能源高质量发展水平的时空演变特征，并借助Tobit回归模型分时段、分省域探究其驱动因素. 结果表明：①中国能源高质量发展水平呈现出在波动中上升的趋势，但整体上中国能源高质量发展水平仍处于较低水平且趋于集聚. ②中国能源高质量发展水平呈现出“南高北低”的特征，在空间分布上呈现显著的空间正相关现象，且空间溢出效应明显. ③能源高质量发展水平驱动因素的作用效果具有时空异质性，经济发展水平、文化水平、技术水平和环境规制水平是能源高质量发展的关键驱动因素，而人口结构和交通基础设施水平则抑制了能源高质量发展，各省域能源高质量发展水平的驱动因素及其影响程度表现出“因省而异”的特点. |
| 英文摘要 |
| High-quality energy development is an important part of high-quality economic development， which is important for realizing the ‘dual-carbon’ goal and combating climate change. Here， we construct a comprehensive evaluation index system for high-quality energy development in five dimensions： innovation， coordination， greenness， openness， and sharing， and measure China's high-quality energy development level from 2011 to 2021 based on the entropy method. Kernel density estimation， spatial autocorrelation， and spatial Markov chains are used to characterize the spatial and temporal evolution of the level of high-quality energy development， and the driving factors are explored with the help of Tobit regression models. The results show that： ① China's high-quality energy development level demonstrated an upward trend in fluctuation， but China's high-quality energy development level overall was still at a low level and tended to cluster. ② China's energy quality development level presented ‘high south and low north’ characteristics， and in the spatial distribution of the phenomenon of significant spatial correlation， the spatial spillover effect was obvious. The traditional Markov chain probability transfer matrix showed that the type transfer of the high-quality development level of provincial energy had stability， and there was a phenomenon of ‘club convergence’ . The spatial Markov chain probability transfer matrix showed that the Matthew effect existed in the high-quality development level of provincial energy， indicating that geographical factors played an important role in the dynamic evolution of high-quality energy development. ③ There was spatial and temporal heterogeneity in the effects of the drivers of the level of high-quality energy development. Economic development level， education level， technology level， and environmental regulation level were the key factors to promote high-quality energy development， while population structure and transportation infrastructure level inhibited high-quality energy development. The drivers of the level of high-quality energy development in each province and the extent to which they influenced it were characterized as ‘province-specific’. |
