| 南方某尾矿区地下水金属元素来源解析及健康风险评价 |
| 摘要点击 799 全文点击 110 投稿时间：2024-05-15 修订日期：2024-07-25 |
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| 中文关键词 地下水 金属元素 随机森林 源解析 健康风险 |
| 英文关键词 groundwater metal elements random forest model source analysis health risks |
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| 中文摘要 |
| 地下水金属元素污染是尾矿区最严重的环境问题之一，查明其分布特征及来源可为地下水污染的精准防控提供数据和方法支撑.通过利用描述性统计和克里金插值等方法揭示研究区地下水9种金属元素（Al、Zn、Cu、Mn、Pb、Cd、Fe、Ba和As）的空间分布特征，运用随机森林模型对地下水水质进行综合评价，结合相关性分析、绝对主成分-多元线性回归模型和蒙特卡洛模拟定量解析金属元素污染来源，并针对特定来源进行健康风险评价.结果表明：①研究区部分地下水中Al、Mn、Pb、Fe、Ba和As超过《地下水质量标准》Ⅲ类标准限值，超标率从大到小为：Mn（60.94%）=Fe（60.94%）>Al（46.88%）>As（6.25%）>Pb（4.69%）>Ba（3.13%），指示Mn、Fe和Al积累最严重；②随机森林模型评价结果显示，研究区地下水水质主要为Ⅱ类、Ⅲ类和Ⅳ类，整体水质较差，影响地下水水质等级的最重要指标为Al、Pb、Fe和Mn，浓度总体呈现中部>南部>北部的分布规律；③地下水金属元素主要污染来源为：地质背景-工业活动、农业活动、交通排放和尾矿矿渣，其中尾矿矿渣对地下水中金属元素积累的贡献率最大（37%）；④蒙特卡洛模拟结果表明，研究区地下水金属元素对成人存在致癌健康风险，对儿童存在致癌和非致癌健康风险；⑤尾矿矿渣来源是致癌风险的主要贡献者（38.5%），Cd贡献最大，地质背景-工业活动来源是非致癌风险的主要贡献者（40.6%），Al、Mn和As贡献最大.因此，针对尾矿区地下水金属元素污染问题，需要引起高度重视. |
| 英文摘要 |
| Groundwater metal elements pollution is one of the most serious environmental problems in the tailings area. Identifying its distribution characteristics and sources provides data and methodological support for precise prevention and control of groundwater pollution. Spatial distribution characteristics of nine metal elements （Al， Zn， Cu， Mn， Pb， Cd， Fe， Ba， and As） in groundwater were revealed using descriptive statistics and kriging interpolation. A comprehensive evaluation of groundwater quality was conducted using a random forest model. Combined with correlation analysis， principal component analysis-multiple linear regression model， and Monte Carlo simulation， the sources of metal element pollution were quantitatively analyzed， and health risks were assessed for specific sources. The results showed that： ① In some areas， the levels of Al， Mn， Pb， Fe， Ba， and As in groundwater exceeded the Class III standards of the Groundwater Quality Standards. The exceedance rates from highest to lowest were： Mn （60.94%） = Fe （60.94%） > Al （46.88%） > As （6.25%） > Pb （4.69%） > Ba （3.13%）. ② Evaluation using the random forest model indicated that groundwater quality in the study area mainly fell within Classes II to IV， reflecting generally poor water quality. Key indicators affecting groundwater quality levels were Al， Pb， Fe， and Mn， with higher concentrations observed in the central > southern > northern parts. ③ The primary sources of groundwater metal element pollution included geological background， industrial activities， agricultural activities， traffic emissions， and tailings slag. Among these sources， tailings slag contributed the most （37%） to the accumulation of metal elements in groundwater. ④ Monte Carlo simulation results highlighted carcinogenic health risks for adults and both carcinogenic and non-carcinogenic risks for children due to groundwater metal elements. ⑤ Tailings slag was identified as the main contributor to carcinogenic risks （38.5%）， with Cd being the major contributor. On the other hand， geological background and industrial activities were the primary contributors to non-carcinogenic risks （40.6%）， primarily due to Al， Mn， and As. Therefore， significant attention is required to address groundwater environmental pollution issues in tailings areas. |
