| 黄土高原作物种植碳足迹时空演化驱动因素及趋势预测 |
| 摘要点击 207 全文点击 19 投稿时间：2024-05-11 修订日期：2024-07-17 |
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| 中文关键词 作物种植碳足迹 时空格局 影响因素 趋势预测 黄土高原 |
| 英文关键词 carbon footprint of crop cultivation spatial and temporal patterns influencing factors trend prediction Loess Plateau |
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| 中文摘要 |
| 减轻作物种植碳足迹对实现“双碳”目标和农业可持续发展具有重要的现实意义,既有研究对作物种植碳足迹影响因素的时空异质性以及碳足迹未来趋势关注不足.黄土高原作为中国重要的生态屏障以及旱区农业的典型区域,近年来作物生产活动面临较大的碳足迹压力.鉴于此,采用生命周期评估（LCA）方法测算黄土高原的作物种植碳足迹,借助空间分析方法捕捉碳足迹的演化规律,运用GTWR模型识别碳足迹影响因素的时空异质性,并预测未来变化趋势.结果表明：①作物种植碳足迹总体呈现先升后降的变化趋势并表现出明显的空间异质性特征,榆林、渭南、运城和巴彦淖尔等市碳足迹高,西宁和乌海等8市碳足迹低.随时间推移,碳足迹逐渐由孤立个体向区域联结演化.②作物种植碳足迹的时空格局及动态变化受多种因素的时空异质性影响.财政支农水平、城镇化和农业机械化水平在多数城市均能抑制作物种植碳足迹；农地经营规模和化肥投入强度的影响以正向为主；提升复种指数以及增加有效灌溉面积会加剧作物种植碳足迹.③预测到2030年,研究区的作物种植碳足迹将下降至427.10万hm2,山西和内蒙古将呈现上升趋势,陕西和甘肃则显著下降,宁夏、青海和河南基本保持不变.根据研究结果为降低黄土高原作物种植碳足迹提出针对性政策建议,研究结论与建议对其他旱区作物种植活动的绿色低碳发展具有借鉴意义. |
| 英文摘要 |
| Reducing the carbon footprint of crop cultivation is practically important in realizing the goal of “double carbon” and sustainable development of agriculture. However, established studies have paid insufficient attention to the spatial and temporal heterogeneity of the factors influencing the carbon footprint of crop cultivation as well as to the future trends of the carbon footprint. The Loess Plateau, as an important ecological barrier in China as well as a typical region for dryland agriculture, has been facing a large carbon footprint pressure on crop production activities in recent years. In view of this, this study measures the carbon footprint of crop cultivation in the Loess Plateau based on the Life Cycle Assessment （LCA） method, captures the evolutionary pattern of the carbon footprint with the help of spatial analysis, identifies the spatial and temporal heterogeneity of the carbon footprint influencing factors by using the GTWR model, and predicts the future trend of the carbon footprint. The study found that： ① The carbon footprint of crop cultivation in general showed an upward and then a downward trend and was characterized by obvious spatial heterogeneity, with high carbon footprints in the cities of Yulin, Weinan, Yuncheng, and Bayannur and low carbon footprints in the eight cities such as Xining and Wuhai. Over time, the carbon footprint gradually evolved from isolated individuals to regional linkages. ② The spatio-temporal patterns and dynamics of the carbon footprint of crop cultivation were influenced by the spatial and temporal heterogeneity of multiple factors. The level of financial support for agriculture, urbanization, and agricultural mechanization could inhibit the carbon footprint of crop cultivation in most cities. The impacts of cropland management scale and fertilizer input intensity were predominantly positive, while raising the replanting index and increasing the effective irrigated areas will exacerbate the carbon footprint of crop cultivation. ③ It was predicted that by 2030, the carbon footprint of crop cultivation in the study area will decrease to 4.271 million hm2, with an increasing trend in Shanxi and Inner Mongolia； a significant decrease in Shaanxi and Gansu； and a basically unchanged trend in Ningxia, Qinghai, and Henan. Based on the results of the study, targeted policy recommendations are proposed to reduce the carbon footprint of crop cultivation in the Loess Plateau, and the conclusions and recommendations of the study are useful for the green and low-carbon development of crop cultivation activities in other arid areas. |
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