| 基于FLUS和InVEST模型的河南省氮素面源污染时空变化特征模拟及预测 |
| 摘要点击 541 全文点击 80 投稿时间：2024-04-25 修订日期：2024-06-13 |
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| 中文关键词 河南省 氮素面源污染 InVEST模型 FLUS模型 气候情景 |
| 英文关键词 Henan Province nitrogen non-point source pollution InVEST model FLUS model climate scenarios |
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| 中文摘要 |
| 为了探究气候变化背景下河南省氮素面源污染特征,首先,利用InVEST模型模拟河南省2000~2020年氮素面源污染负荷及其时空分布；之后,将FLUS模型与InVEST模型耦合,模拟河南省在SSP2-4.5和SSP5-8.5两种气候情景下2030~2050年的氮素面源污染负荷及其空间分布. 研究结果表明：①在2000~2020年期间,河南省氮素输出总量和负荷先上升后下降,整体上保持下降水平. ②在空间分布上,2000~2020年氮输出负荷整体呈现出“平原高,山丘低”的特征,可见氮素面源污染与地形有极大关系. ③在SSP2-4.5情景下2030~2050年氮素输出的总量和负荷均值逐年升高,但其整体变化规律较为复杂；在SSP5-8.5情景下2030~2050年氮素输出的总量和负荷均值先下降后升高,但其整体变化规律一致. 依据研究结果,结合河南省实际情况,可为河南省未来的面源污染防控提供理论依据. |
| 英文摘要 |
| To elucidate the characteristics of nitrogen non-point source pollution in Henan Province under the influence of climate change, this study initially utilized the InVEST model to simulate the temporal and spatial distribution of the N non-point source pollution load in Henan Province from 2000 to 2020, subsequently coupling the FLUS model with the InVEST model, nitrogen point source pollution load, and its spatial distribution in Henan Province from 2030 to 2050 under SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 climate scenarios. The findings of the study indicated that： ① Between 2000 and 2020, the total nitrogen output and load in Henan Province initially increased before decreasing, maintaining an overall downward trend. ② In terms of spatial distribution, the nitrogen output load from 2000 to 2020 displayed a pattern of “high in the plains, low in hilly areas,” indicating a strong correlation between nitrogen non-point source pollution and topography. ③ Under the SSP2-4.5 scenario, the total nitrogen output and load were projected to increase annually from 2030 to 2050, with a complex overall change pattern； under the SSP5-8.5 scenario, the total nitrogen output and load were anticipated to decrease initially before increasing, with a consistent overall change pattern. Based on these results and in conjunction with the practical situation of Henan Province, it is hoped that this research can provide a theoretical foundation for the prevention and control of future non-point source pollution in the province. |
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