| 基于随机森林模型的山东省典型城市O3与PM2.5污染影响因子 |
| 摘要点击 761 全文点击 106 投稿时间：2024-01-10 修订日期：2024-06-10 |
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| 中文关键词 O3 PM2.5 随机森林（RF） 影响因子 山东省 |
| 英文关键词 O3 PM2.5 random forest （RF） impact factors Shandong Province |
| 作者 | 单位 | E-mail | | 王玉 | 山东师范大学地理与环境学院, 济南 250014 | 2021020819@stu.sdnu.edu.cn | | 曲凯 | 山东省环境信息与监测中心, 济南 250101 | | | 葛衍珍 | 泰安市生态环境保护控制中心, 泰安 271000 | | | 刘辉 | 清环智源(北京)科技有限公司, 北京 100083 | | | 陈超 | 山东师范大学地理与环境学院, 济南 250014 | | | 王文鑫 | 山东师范大学地理与环境学院, 济南 250014 | | | 隋潇 | 山东师范大学地理与环境学院, 济南 250014 | | | 魏敏 | 山东师范大学地理与环境学院, 济南 250014 | | | 史祥利 | 山东师范大学地理与环境学院, 济南 250014 | | | 刘厚凤 | 山东师范大学地理与环境学院, 济南 250014 | 110027@sdnu.edu.cn |
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| 中文摘要 |
| 目前O3和PM2.5污染仍是制约山东省空气质量进一步改善的关键难题. 基于山东省济南、淄博、泰安和威海这4个典型城市的2021年气象、常规污染物及VOCs数据,采用随机森林模型研究了O3和PM2.5影响因子的相对重要性. 结果表明,对4个城市O3影响重要性最高的是气温,其次为前体物. 济南与威海NOx重要性低于VOCs,淄博与泰安则相反. 不同城市影响O3的VOCs物种重要性与其排放源结构有关. 济南受溶剂使用及交通排放的芳香烃和烯烃影响较大,淄博受石油化工和化学制药等排放的C2~C5烷烯烃和芳香烃影响最大,植物源异戊二烯对泰安重要性较高,船舶/渔具制造、橡胶生产和电子制造等行业产生的OVOCs和卤代烃类对威海影响较为突出. 对PM2.5影响重要性最高的是CO、NOx和SO2等前体物,其次为气象因子和VOCs. 其中石油炼制、化学制药以及煤和柴油燃烧等过程产生的长链烷烃、OVOCs、卤代烃和乙炔是对PM2.5污染重要性较高的物种. 研究结果可为城市制定差异化的污染管控策略提供有益借鉴. |
| 英文摘要 |
| O3 and PM2.5 pollution remains a challenge for further improvement of air quality in the Shandong Province. Based on the online observations of O3 and PM2.5 of four typical cities of Jinan, Zibo, Tai'an, and Weihai in the Shandong Province in 2021, we analyzed the relative importance of meteorological factors, conventional pollutants, and VOCs using the random forest （RF） model. The results indicated that in terms of the impact on O3 pollution, the most influential factor was temperature, followed by precursors such as NOx and VOCs. The importance of NOx in Jinan and Weihai was lower than that of VOCs, and that in Zibo and Tai'an was the opposite. The VOC species affecting O3 in different cities were related to emission source structure. Aromatic hydrocarbons and alkenes from solvent use and traffic emissions had a high impact in Jinan. C2-C5 alkanes, alkenes, and aromatic hydrocarbons emitted from petrochemicals and chemical pharmaceuticals had the greatest impact in Zibo. Plant-derived isoprene was of great importance to Tai'an. OVOCs and halogenated hydrocarbons from industries, such as ship/fishing gear manufacturing, rubber production, and electronics manufacturing, were crucial to Weihai. In terms of PM2.5 pollution, the more influential factors were in the order： CO, NOx, SO2, meteorological factors, and VOCs. Long-chain alkanes, OVOCs, halogenated hydrocarbons, and acetylene emitted from petroleum refining, chemical pharmaceuticals, and coal and diesel combustion were species of high importance for PM2.5 pollution. This study provides useful reference for cities to develop targeted pollution control strategies. |
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