| 中国建筑碳减排-环境保护-经济发展系统耦合效应的危机转化 |
| 摘要点击 510 全文点击 68 投稿时间：2024-03-15 修订日期：2024-06-08 |
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| 中文关键词 建筑碳减排 危机转化度 状态空间模型 耦合协调发展 减碳增效 指标体系 |
| 英文关键词 building carbon reduction crisis transformation degree state space model coupling coordinated development carbon reduction and efficiency increase index system |
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| 中文摘要 |
| 深入挖掘建筑碳减排-环境保护-经济发展系统时空演变及协调发展水平以及剖析建筑碳排放治理的危和机,对实现建筑碳达峰和碳中和目标意义重大. 构建综合评价指标体系,建立耦合协调发展指数模型、状态空间模型以及危机转化度等模型对2010~2020年中国建筑碳减排-环境保护-经济发展系统的耦合效应进行危机转化研究. 结果表明：①环境保护系统综合评价值稳步提高,从2010年的0.44升至2020年的0.49,总体增长9.82%,各省（省级行政区,包括省、自治区和直辖市,下同）差距在逐渐缩小；经济发展系统综合评价值最低,从2010年的0.14升至2020年的0.24,总体增长43.16%,虽然增速大,但是区域差异极大；建筑碳减排系统综合评价值呈减速趋势,从2010年的0.45降至2020年的0.44,总体减少2.27%,各省短时间难以实现建筑碳达峰. ②全国耦合协调发展指数仍处于较低水平,集中在0.3~0.4之间,区域差异显著,只有少数省处于较协调发展水平；总览全国,呈现逐年增长趋势,从不协调发展逐渐演变为一般协调发展,但极其协调发展区域依然匮乏,仍存在较大提升空间. 各省危机转化度也处于较低水平,集中在0.3~0.5之间,2020年较2006年增长了49.22%,存在多级分化趋势. ③大部分省耦合协调发展指数高于危机转化度,不能仅仅依据高协调发展水平就判断其多系统处于高发展状态,提高耦合协调指数并不一定导致危机转化度的提高,需要结合危机转化度综合判断其状态分布,剖析危机,化危为机,优化发展路径. ④实现BEE系统危机转化需要综合考虑多主体-多阶段-多系统,全方位发力. |
| 英文摘要 |
| Exploring the spatio-temporal evolution and coordinated developmental level of the building carbon reduction-environmental protection-economic development system and analyzing the risks and opportunities of building carbon emission management are crucial for achieving the goals of realizing carbon peak and carbon neutrality. A comprehensive evaluation index system and coupled coordinated development, state space, and crisis transformation degree models were constructed to study the coupling effects of the building carbon reduction-environmental protection-economic development system in China from 2010 to 2020. The results showed that： ① The comprehensive evaluation value of the environmental protection system increased steadily, from 0.44 in 2010 to 0.49 in 2020, with an overall increase of 9.82%, whereas the regional differences were gradually decreasing. The comprehensive evaluation value of the economic development system was the lowest, rising from 0.14 in 2010 to 0.24 in 2020, with an overall increase of 43.16%. Although the growth rate was large, considerable regional differences were observed. The comprehensive evaluation value of the building carbon reduction system showed a decelerating trend, from 0.45 in 2010 to 0.44 in 2020, with an overall decrease of 2.27%, and achieving building carbon peaks in a short time was difficult for the provinces. ② The national coupled coordinated development index was still at a low level, concentrated between 0.3 and 0.4, and marked regional differences were observed, with only a few provinces in the more coordinated developmental level. Overall, the country has shown a growing trend, and the uncoordinated development has gradually evolved into general coordinated development, but the extremely coordinated developmental area is still lacking and has the potential for improvement. The transformation degree of crisis was also at a low level, concentrated between 0.3 and 0.5, with an increase of 49.22% in 2020 compared with that in 2006, and a multi-level differentiation trend was observed. ③ The coupled coordinated development index of most provinces was higher than the crisis transformation degree, making it difficult to judge that their multi-systems were in a state of high development, based on the high coordinated developmental level. Improving the coupled coordination index would not necessarily improve the crisis transformation degree. Comprehensive judgment of the state distribution of the provinces according to the crisis transformation degree, analysis of the crisis, turning the crisis into an opportunity, and optimization of the developmental path are necessary. ④ The realization of building carbon reduction-environmental protection-economic development system crisis transformation requires comprehensive consideration of multi-agent, multi-stage, multi-system, and all-round efforts. |
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