| 基于PLUS-InVEST模型的青海省海西州碳储量时空演变及预测 |
| 摘要点击 1036 全文点击 118 投稿时间：2024-04-28 修订日期：2024-06-06 |
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| 中文关键词 土地利用类型 碳储量 PLUS-InVEST模型 海西州 2030年多情景 |
| 英文关键词 land use type carbon storage PLUS-InVEST model Haixi Prefecture multiple scenarios for 2030 |
| 作者 | 单位 | E-mail | | 杨鸿魁 | 青海师范大学地理科学学院, 青海省自然地理与环境过程重点实验室, 西宁 810008
中国地质调查局西宁自然资源综合调查中心, 西宁 810021 | 1456711871@qq.com | | 张乐乐 | 青海师范大学地理科学学院, 青海省自然地理与环境过程重点实验室, 西宁 810008 | zhang1986lele@163.com | | 刘晓洋 | 青海师范大学地理科学学院, 青海省自然地理与环境过程重点实验室, 西宁 810008 | | | 杨明新 | 中国地质调查局西宁自然资源综合调查中心, 西宁 810021 | | | 李有三 | 青海师范大学地理科学学院, 青海省自然地理与环境过程重点实验室, 西宁 810008
中国地质调查局西宁自然资源综合调查中心, 西宁 810021 | |
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| 中文摘要 |
| 土地利用类型的变化严重影响区域碳储量的空间分布格局,探究未来情景下土地利用状况可为内陆干旱区土地利用结构空间优化、碳收支平衡及可持续发展提供重要参考. 以海西州2000年、2010年和2020年土地利用类型为基础数据,分析了研究区20 a土地利用变化特征,并采用PLUS-InVEST模型结合13个驱动因子来模拟预测2030年自然发展情景、生态保护情景和城镇发展情境下的土地利用和碳储量时空分布特征. 结果表明：①2000~2020年海西州主要土地类型以草地和未利用地为主,草地面积持续减少,主要向未利用地和建设用地发生转移,其他地类面积呈增加趋势. ②相比2020年,2030年自然发展情景林地面积减少204.86 km2,降幅达24.18%,草地减少4 167.02 km2. 生态保护情景下,林地和草地面积分别增加55.47 km2和929.41 km2. 城镇发展情景下建设用地面积为672.84 km2,增幅达17.34%. ③2000~2020年总碳储量共计减少162.04×106 t,呈持续下降的趋势. 碳储量高值分布在研究区东部及南部,低值主要分布在柴达木盆地及周缘. ④2030年,生态保护情景较自然发展情景、城镇发展情景碳储量分别增加84.78×106和86.16×106 t,表明生态保护可以有效增加研究区碳储量. 研究结果可以为海西州土地利用合理规划和区域协调发展提供数据支撑. |
| 英文摘要 |
| The change of land use type seriously affects the spatial distribution pattern of regional carbon stocks. Exploring the land use status under future scenarios can provide an important reference for the spatial optimization of land use structure, carbon budget balance, and sustainable development in inland arid areas. Based on the land use types of the Haixi Prefecture in 2000, 2010, and 2020, the characteristics of land use change in the study area over 20 years were analyzed. The PLUS-InVEST model combined with 13 driving factors was used to simulate and predict the temporal and spatial distribution characteristics of land use and carbon storage under natural development, ecological protection, and urban development scenarios in 2030. The results showed that： ① From 2000 to 2020, the main land types in the Haixi Prefecture were grassland and unused land； the area of grassland continued to decrease, mainly transferred to unused and construction land, whereas the area of other land types showed an increasing trend. ② Compared with that in 2020, under the natural development scenario in 2030, the area of forest land will decrease by 204.86 km2, indicating a decrease of 24.18%, and the area of grassland will decrease by 4 167.02 km2. Under the ecological protection scenario, the area of forest land and grassland will increase by 55.47 km2 and 929.41 km2, respectively. Under the urban development scenario, the construction land area will be 672.84 km2, indicating an increase of 17.34%. ③ From 2000 to 2020, the total carbon storage decreased by 162.04×106 t, showing a continuous downward trend. High carbon storage values were distributed in the eastern and southern parts of the study area, while low carbon storage values were mainly distributed in the Qaidam Basin and its periphery. ④ In 2030, carbon storage under the ecological protection scenario will increase by 84.78×106 t and 86.16×106 t compared with that under the natural and urban development scenarios, respectively, indicating that ecological protection can effectively increase carbon storage in the study area. These findings provide data support for rational land use planning and coordinated regional development in the Haixi Prefecture. |
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