| 基于PLUS-InVEST模型的长三角城市群碳储量时空演变与预测 |
| 摘要点击 1783 全文点击 234 投稿时间：2024-04-05 修订日期：2024-05-20 |
| 查看HTML全文
查看全文 查看/发表评论 下载PDF阅读器 |
| 中文关键词 土地利用变化 碳储量 InVEST模型 PLUS模型 长三角城市群 |
| 英文关键词 Land use change carbon storage InVEST model PLUS model Yangtze River Delta（YRD）urban agglomeration |
|
| 中文摘要 |
| 土地利用变化是影响陆地生态系统碳储量变化的重要因素,研究土地利用变化与碳储量之间关系对优化区域土地利用结构,维持区域碳平衡并提高区域碳储量具有重要意义. 在“双碳”目标和区域一体化高质量发展的双重背景之下,长三角地区作为中国式现代化建设高地有着重要的战略地位. 因此,以长三角城市群为例,基于PLUS模型分析2000~2020年土地利用变化,结合自然发展情景、耕地保护情景和生态优先情景设置,对2030年长三角城市群土地利用格局进行模拟预测,并进一步运用InVEST模型测算2000~2020年及2030年不同情景下长三角城市群碳储量变化. 最后,利用空间自相关分析探索长三角城市群不同情景下陆地生态系统碳储量时空变化特征并提出相应建议. 结果表明：①2000~2020年长三角城市群的碳储量损失了51.08×106 t. 耕地面积的减少（7.82%）以及建设用地面积的增加（7.56%）是碳损耗的主要原因. ②2030年长三角城市群陆地生态系统碳储量在自然发展情景、耕地保护情景和生态优先情景下的碳储量分别为2.65×109、2.67×109和2.70×109 t. 与2020年碳储量值相比,3种情景下的碳储量值均有不同程度下降. ③局部空间自相关分析结果显示,3种情景下的碳储量空间分布具相似性,高值区域在长三角城市群南部及西部区域出现集聚,低值区域则在东部、中部区域聚集. 研究结果可为长三角城市群未来实现“碳达峰,碳中和”目标提供科学依据. |
| 英文摘要 |
| Land use change is a crucial factor influencing the variation of carbon storage in terrestrial ecosystems. Studying the relationship between land use change and carbon storage is important for optimizing regional land use structure, maintaining regional carbon balance, and enhancing regional carbon storage. Against the backdrop of the “Dual Carbon” goals and the dual emphasis on high-quality integrated development in the region, the Yangtze River Delta （YRD） region holds a strategic position as a hub of China's modernization efforts. Therefore, taking the YRD urban agglomeration as an example, based on the PLUS model, an analysis of land use changes from 2000 to 2020 was conducted. Scenarios including natural development, farmland protection, and ecological priority were set to simulate and predict the land use pattern of the YRD urban agglomeration in 2030. Furthermore, the InVEST model was used to calculate the changes in carbon storage in the YRD urban agglomeration under different scenarios for the periods of 2000 to 2020 and 2030. Finally, spatial autocorrelation analysis was utilized to explore the spatio-temporal characteristics of carbon storage in the terrestrial ecosystems of the YRD urban agglomeration under different scenarios, and corresponding suggestions were proposed. The results indicated that： ① From 2000 to 2020, the carbon storage in the YRD urban agglomeration decreased by 51.08×106 t. The reduction in farmland area （7.82%） and increase in construction land area （7.56%） were the main reasons for carbon loss. ② By 2030, the carbon storage in the terrestrial ecosystem of the YRD urban agglomeration under the scenarios of natural development, farmland protection, and ecological priority were estimated to be 2.65×109, 2.67×109, and 2.70×109 t, respectively. Compared with the carbon storage values in 2020, the values under all three scenarios showed a decrease to varying degrees. ③ The results of local spatial autocorrelation analysis showed similar spatial distribution of carbon storage under all three scenarios. High-value areas were clustered in the southern and western regions of the YRD urban agglomeration, whereas low-value areas were concentrated in the eastern and central regions. These findings contribute substantially to achieving the “carbon peaking and carbon neutrality” goals in the YRD urban agglomeration. |
|
|
|
