| 耦合PLUS-InVEST-GeoDetector模型的安徽省碳储量时空演变及驱动力分析 |
| 摘要点击 1042 全文点击 194 投稿时间：2024-03-13 修订日期：2024-05-13 |
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| 中文关键词 PLUS模型 InVEST模型 碳储量 地理探测器 多情景预测 |
| 英文关键词 PLUS model InVEST model carbon storage GeoDetector multi-scenario prediction |
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| 中文摘要 |
| 基于“双碳”战略目标,探究安徽省土地利用变化对碳储量的影响以及碳储量空间分异驱动因素,并预测不同情景下安徽省2035年土地利用格局,对安徽省政策制定、土地资源分配优化以及“双碳”目标的实现具有重要的理论和现实意义. 耦合PLUS-InVEST模型对安徽省2035年自然发展、生态保护、耕地保护和耕地生态双保护情景下土地利用格局以及碳储量时空变化特征,并运用地理探测器对碳储量的空间分异驱动力进行分析. 结果表明：①1990~2020年安徽省土地利用格局呈现为耕地和林地面积持续减少,城镇用地面积大幅扩张的趋势. ②1990~2020年安徽省碳储量减少了1.39×107 t,呈持续减少的趋势,耕地转为城镇用地是碳储量减少的主要原因,占损失碳储量总量的65.96%. ③单因子探测下高程对碳储量空间分异解释力最强（q值为0.185）,自然环境因子对碳储量空间分异的解释力占据主导地位；交互因子探测显示,所有因子在交互作用下均有增强作用,碳储量空间分异是多重因素共同作用的结果. ④2035年不同情景下碳储量均为减少趋势,其中耕地生态双保护情景下抑制碳储量减少最为显著. |
| 英文摘要 |
| To explore the impact of land use change on carbon storage and the driving factors of spatial differentiation of carbon storage in Anhui Province under the strategic goal of "dual carbon" and to predict the land use pattern of Anhui Province in 2035 under different scenarios is theoretically and practically important. The coupling PLUS-InVEST model was used to analyze the spatial and temporal variation characteristics of land use pattern and carbon storage in Anhui Province under the scenarios of natural development, ecological protection, cultivated land protection, and ecological cultivated land protection in 2035, and the driving force of spatial differentiation of carbon storage was analyzed by using geographic detectors. The results showed that： ① From 1990 to 2020, the land use pattern of Anhui Province showed a trend of continuous decrease in cultivated land and forest land area and significant expansion of urban area. ② From 1990 to 2020, the carbon storage in Anhui Province decreased by 1.39×107 t, showing a continuous decreasing trend, and the conversion of cultivated land to urban was the major reason for the decrease in carbon storage, accounting for 65.96% of the total carbon storage loss. ③ The explanatory power of elevation on carbon storage was the strongest under single factor detection （q value of 0.185）, and the explanatory power of natural environmental factors on carbon storage spatial differentiation was dominant. ④ In 2035, the carbon storage under different scenarios will be decreasing, and the reduction of inhibited carbon storage under the cultivated land ecological dual protection scenario will be the most significant. |
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