| 京津冀生态系统固碳效益时空格局及驱动因素定量分离 |
| 摘要点击 734 全文点击 214 投稿时间：2024-03-28 修订日期：2024-05-12 |
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| 中文关键词 净生态系统生产力（NEP） 固碳效益 时空格局 人类活动 京津冀 |
| 英文关键词 net ecosystem productivity （NEP） carbon sequestration benefits spatial and temporal patterns anthropogenic activities Beijing-Tianjing-Hebei Region |
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| 中文摘要 |
| 净生态系统生产力（NEP）是评价区域生态系统碳源碳汇的重要指标,厘清其时空分异格局及驱动机制对京津冀生态系统精准保护与修复至关重要. 基于MODIS遥感数据估算了净生态系统生产力（NEP）,采用Sen趋势+MK检验、Hurst指数和重心迁移等方法探究了京津冀2002~2020年固碳效益时空格局和演替规律,利用偏相关、复相关及残差分析定量解析了人类活动和气候变化驱动固碳效益时空分异的相对贡献. 结果表明：①京津冀近20 a NEP呈逐年上升趋势,增长速率（以C计）为3.066 4 g·（m2·a）-1,空间上表现为西北高东南低；碳汇能力强的地区主要集中在张家口市和承德市周边,碳源效应强烈的区域分布在天津和邯郸等地；超过80%的区域碳汇能力呈上升趋势,其中极显著上升、显著上升区域占比分别为47.45%和8.29%,尤其是张-承地区,但未来增长趋势在逐步减缓；碳源重心在逐渐向东南部平原迁移,碳汇重心则由东北向西南迁移. ②超过50%区域的NEP与年平均气温和年累计降水呈现正相关关系,但显著性均不强,复相关结果进一步证明了存在气象因素之外的其他条件在主导NEP的变化. ③研究区域内NEP退化区与改善区占比分别为12.41%、87.59%,残差分析表明人类主导的固碳效益提升区占总改善区的94.88%,而退化区中气候主导的固碳效益降低区占62.84％,说明京津冀地区人类活动在影响生态系统固碳效益方面以正向促进为主. 研究结论对精准识别京津冀生态系统保护与修复未来工作重心有指导意义. |
| 英文摘要 |
| Net ecosystem productivity （NEP） is an important indicator for evaluating carbon sources and sinks in regional ecosystems. Clarifying its spatiotemporal differentiation pattern and driving mechanisms is crucial for precise protection and restoration of the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei ecosystem. We estimated the net ecosystem productivity （NEP） based on MODIS remote sensing data and explored the spatial and temporal patterns of carbon sequestration benefits and succession patterns in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region from 2002 to 2020 by using Sen’s trend + MK test, Hurst index, and center of gravity shift and quantitatively separated the relative contributions of carbon sequestration benefits driven by human activities and climate change by using bias correlation, complex correlation, and residual analysis. The relative contributions of anthropogenic activities and climate change in driving the spatial and temporal changes in carbon sequestration were quantitatively separated using partial correlation and residual analysis. The results showed that： ① NEP in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region showed an increasing trend year by year over the past 20 years, with a growth rate （in terms of C） of 3.066 4 g·（m2·a）-1, and the spatial manifestation was high in the northwest and low in the southeast； the areas with strong carbon sink capacity were mainly concentrated in the periphery of Zhangjiakou City and Chengde City, and those with a strong carbon source effect were distributed in the regions of Tianjin and Handan. More than 80% of the regional carbon sink capacity was on the rise, with 47.45% and 8.29% of the regions showing very significant and significant increases, respectively, especially in Zhangjiakou and Chengde； however, the future growth trend was gradually slowing down. The center of gravity of carbon sources was gradually shifting to the southeastern plains, while the center of gravity of carbon sinks was shifting from the northeast to the southwest. ② More than 50% of the regions showed positive correlations between NEP and mean annual temperature and accumulated annual precipitation； however, the significance was not strong, and the results of the composite correlation further demonstrated that there were conditions other than meteorological factors that dominated the changes in NEP. ③ The residual results showed that the proportion of degraded and improved areas in the study area was 12.41% and 87.59%, respectively, with areas of enhanced human-led carbon sequestration accounting for 94.88% of the total improved areas, while the climate-led carbon sequestration benefit reduction area accounted for 62.84% of the degraded area, indicating that anthropogenic activities in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region mainly contributed positively to ecosystems in terms of carbon sequestration benefit. The results of the study are instructive for accurately identifying the future focus of ecological protection and restoration in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region. |
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