| 青藏高原自然保护区生态脆弱性演化与模拟 |
| 摘要点击 1066 全文点击 178 投稿时间：2024-03-10 修订日期：2024-05-08 |
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| 中文关键词 生态脆弱性 空间多准则评估 有序加权平均（OWA） 情景分析 青藏高原自然保护区 |
| 英文关键词 ecological vulnerability spatial multi-criteria assessment ordered weighted average （OWA） scenario analysis Qinghai-Xizang Plateau Nature Reserve |
| 作者 | 单位 | E-mail | | 王晓峰 | 长安大学土地工程学院, 西安 710054
西安市国土空间信息重点实验室, 西安 710054 | wangxf@chd.edu.cn | | 郑媛元 | 长安大学土地工程学院, 西安 710054
西安市国土空间信息重点实验室, 西安 710054 | | | 孙泽冲 | 长安大学土地工程学院, 西安 710054
西安市国土空间信息重点实验室, 西安 710054 | | | 周继涛 | 长安大学土地工程学院, 西安 710054
西安市国土空间信息重点实验室, 西安 710054 | | | 王筱雪 | 长安大学土地工程学院, 西安 710054
西安市国土空间信息重点实验室, 西安 710054 | | | 朱梦娜 | 长安大学土地工程学院, 西安 710054
西安市国土空间信息重点实验室, 西安 710054 | |
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| 中文摘要 |
| 青藏高原是我国最大的生态脆弱敏感区,厘清青藏高原自然保护区生态脆弱性时空演变特征对推动生态安全屏障与绿色发展协同提升有重要意义. 以青藏高原自然保护区为案例,基于“敏感性-重要性-恢复力”（SIR）这 3个维度,构建评价指标体系并定量评价时空特征,采用AHP-OWA模拟不同决策偏好下的生态脆弱性情景. 结果表明：①2000~2020年青藏高原生态脆弱性指数（EVI）从0.79减小至0.74,自然保护区生态脆弱格局整体呈改善趋势,然而,较高脆弱区仍占据主导地位；②生态脆弱性空间上总体呈现“西北高,东南低”的格局,高值主要集中于羌塘、可可西里、中昆仑和阿尔金山等地,低值位于雅鲁藏布江、若尔盖湿地等自然保护区的东南部；③基于OWA方法设置了3种情景,从可持续导向到经济优先导向,高度脆弱区范围不断扩展,羌塘和阿尔金山地区较为明显,而低脆弱区变化较小. 研究评估青藏高原自然保护区生态脆弱性,并通过OWA方法对不同发展条件下的脆弱性进行未来情景模拟,可为区域可持续发展和脆弱性风险预警机制的建设提供理论参考. |
| 英文摘要 |
| The Qinghai-Xizang Plateau is the largest ecologically fragile and sensitive area in China and clarifying the spatial and temporal characteristics of ecological vulnerability of the Qinghai-Xizang Plateau Nature Reserve is important to promote the synergistic enhancement of the ecological security barrier and green development. Taking the Qinghai-Xizang Plateau Nature Reserve as a case study, we constructed a system of evaluation indicators and quantitatively evaluated the spatial and temporal characteristics based on the three dimensions of sensitivity-importance-resilience （SIR）. We also simulated the scenarios of ecological vulnerability under different decision-making preferences by using AHP-OWA. The results showed that： ① From 2000 to 2020, the ecological vulnerability index （EVI） of the Qinghai-Xizang Plateau decreased from 0.79 to 0.74, and the ecological vulnerability pattern of the nature reserves showed a trend of improvement； however, the higher vulnerability areas were still dominant. ② The spatial pattern of ecological vulnerability showed a general pattern of “high in the northwest and low in the southeast,” with the high values mainly concentrated in the northwest and low values in the southeast. The high values were mainly concentrated in Qiangtang, Cocozily, Zhongkunlun, and Arjinshan, and the low values were located in the southeast of Yarlung Zangbo River and Ruoergai Wetland Nature Reserve. ③ Based on the OWA method, three scenarios were set up, from the sustainability-oriented to the economy-priority oriented, and the scope of the highly fragile area was expanding, with the Qiangtang and Arjinshan regions being more obvious, and the changes in the low fragile area being lesser. This study assessed the ecological vulnerability of the Qinghai-Xizang Plateau Nature Reserve and simulated the future scenarios of vulnerability under different development conditions through the OWA method, which can provide theoretical references for the construction of regional sustainable development and vulnerability risk early warning mechanisms. |
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