| 长江经济带农业碳排放影响因素及脱钩效应 |
| 摘要点击 1096 全文点击 120 投稿时间：2024-03-28 修订日期：2024-05-23 |
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| 中文关键词 长江经济带 农业碳排放 LMDI模型 Tapio脱钩 EKC曲线 |
| 英文关键词 Yangtze River Economic Belt agricultural carbon emissions LMDI model Tapio decoupling EKC curve |
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| 中文摘要 |
| 在新质生产力助推农业强国建设的时代背景下,梳理长江经济带农业碳减排路径,厘清农业碳减排与碳脱钩等问题,对推进农业领域的“双碳”进程具有重要意义. 通过构建农业碳排放核算模型,对2000~2022年长江经济带11省（直辖市）的农业碳排放量进行测算,在明确农业碳排放强度时空分布特征和收敛情况的基础上,采用对数平均迪式指数分解模型（LMDI）分析其农业碳排放影响因素,构建速度脱钩和数量脱钩模型,探讨驱动作用最强的影响因素与农业碳排放的脱钩关系. 结果表明,在研究期内,长江经济带农业碳排放总量先增后减,主要排放源依次为秸秆焚烧、粮食种植、畜牧养殖和农用物质投入. 经济发展水平是导致农业碳排放量上升的主要因素. 虽然农业生产效率的提升在一定程度上抑制了产值增长带来的碳排放量增加,但总抑制效应小于总促进效应. 从双重脱钩视角分析,该地区尚未达到农业碳排放量与农民经济收入增长间的稳定强脱钩状态. 基于此,分别针对上游、中游和下游地区的种植业、养殖业和农产品供应链领域,提出减污固碳、清洁生产和绿色转型等建议. |
| 英文摘要 |
| In the context of the era when new quality productivity is promoting the construction of an agricultural power, sorting out the rising path of agricultural carbon in the Yangtze River Economic Belt and clarifying issues, such as agricultural carbon height and carbon decoupling are important to promoting the "double carbon" process in the agricultural field. A statistical model of agricultural carbon emissions was established to measure the agricultural carbon emissions of 11 provinces （municipalities） in the Yangtze River Economic Belt from 2000 to 2022. On the basis of clarifying the spatial and temporal distribution characteristics and reduction of agricultural carbon emission intensity, the LMDI model was used to analyze agricultural carbon emissions. Second, we constructed models of decoupling in terms of speed and quantity and explored the decoupling relationship between the most influential factors with the strongest driving effect and agricultural carbon emissions. The results showed that during the study period, the total agricultural carbon emissions in the Yangtze River Economic Belt first increased and then decreased, and the major emission sources were straw burning, grain planting, livestock breeding, and agricultural material input. The level of economic development was the major factor leading to the increase in agricultural carbon emissions. Although the improvement of agricultural production efficiency inhibited the increase in carbon emissions caused by the growth of output value to a certain extent, the total inhibitory effect was lesser than the total promotion effect. From the perspective of double decoupling, the region has not yet reached a stable and strong decoupling state between agricultural carbon emissions and economic income growth of farmers. Based on this, suggestions for pollution reduction and carbon sequestration, clean production, and green transformation are put forward, respectively, for the planting industry, breeding industry, and agricultural product supply chain in the upstream, midstream, and downstream regions. |
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