| 基于LEAP模型的天津市多情景能源消费和碳排放预测 |
| 摘要点击 1019 全文点击 142 投稿时间：2024-03-08 修订日期：2024-05-23 |
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| 中文关键词 LEAP模型 碳排放 能源消费 LMDI模型 情景分析 |
| 英文关键词 LEAP model carbon emission energy consumption LMDI model scenario analysis |
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| 中文摘要 |
| 双碳目标对中国的能源消费及碳排放提出了要求. 以天津市为例,根据不同能源类型,编制碳排放清单,采用对数平均指数法（LMDI）,精准识别各因素对碳排放的驱动程度. 基于此,结合情景分析,构建LEAP-TJ模型,探究天津市2022~2060年终端能源消费和碳排放趋势. 结果表明,经济规模是天津市终端碳排放增长的第一主导因素. 能源消费和碳排放将在基准情景下继续增加,2060年的碳排放将是2021年的2.7倍；但在综合情景下,天津市将在2025年实现终端碳达峰,并将在2060年较基准情景碳排放量下降85.1%,碳减排效果显著. |
| 英文摘要 |
| The carbon peaking and carbon neutrality goals require China to reduce energy consumption and reduce carbon emissions. Taking Tianjin as an example, the carbon emission inventory was compiled, and the driving degree of each factor was identified by the logarithmic mean index method （LMDI）. Based on this, combined with scenario analysis, the LEAP-TJ model was constructed to explore the trend of terminal energy consumption and carbon emission in Tianjin from 2022 to 2060. The results showed that the economic scale was the first leading factor for the growth of terminal carbon emissions in Tianjin. Energy consumption and carbon emissions will continue to increase in the baseline scenario, and carbon emissions in 2060 will be 2.7 times those in 2021. Under the comprehensive scenario, Tianjin will realize the terminal peak carbon dioxide emissions in 2025, and its carbon emissions will be reduced by 85.1% compared with those under the baseline scenario in 2060, with a remarkable carbon emission reduction effect. |
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