| 基于PLUS模型的河南省“三生空间”多情景模拟及生态环境效应分析 |
| 摘要点击 1328 全文点击 145 投稿时间：2024-02-18 修订日期：2024-04-23 |
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| 中文关键词 三生空间 PLUS模型 生态环境效应模型 河南省 土地利用变化 |
| 英文关键词 production-living-ecological space PLUS model eco-environmental effect model Henan Province land use change |
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| 中文摘要 |
| 基于2000年、2010年和2020年分辨率为30 m的土地利用数据,通过土地转移矩阵和生态环境效应模型分析河南省的“三生空间”分布和生态环境质量,并以2020年土地利用数据为基础,利用PLUS模型模拟河南省自然发展、生产优先和生态优先情景下的2030年、2040年和2050年的土地利用数据,并计算生态环境质量指数和生态贡献度. 结果表明：①2000~2020年,生产空间面积缩减,生活空间和生态空间面积扩张；②2000~2020年,生态环境质量指数由0.364 6上升到了0.366 5,又下降到0.365 7,处于中等水平；③2030~2050年,“三生空间”的分布基本不变,且自然发展和生态优先情景下的趋势也基本不变；④3种情景中,生态优先情景下的生态环境质量指数最高. “三生空间”的分布对国土空间未来的规划及生态环境建设具有重要意义. |
| 英文摘要 |
| Considering Henan Province as the research area, based on land use data with a resolution of 30 m in 2000, 2010, and 2020, we analyzed the distribution of the production-living-ecological space and the quality of the ecological environment in Henan Province using land transfer matrices and an eco-environmental effect model. Furthermore, based on 2020 land use data, the PLUS model was used to simulate land use data for the years 2030, 2040, and 2050 under three scenarios： natural development, production priority, and ecological priority. Finally, we calculated the ecological environment quality index and ecological contribution rate. The results showed that： ① From 2000 to 2020, the area of production space decreased by 4 879 km2, the area of living space increased by 19%, and the area of ecological space increased by 1.9%. ② From 2000 to 2020, the eco-environmental quality index increased from 0.364 6 in 2000 to 0.366 5 in 2010 and then decreased to 0.365 7 in 2020, which was at a medium level. ③ From 2030 to 2050, the distribution of production-living-ecological space will remain unchanged, and the trend under the natural development and ecological priority scenarios will remain unchanged. ④ From 2020 to 2050, Henan Province had the best ecological environment under the ecological priority scenario, and the ecological environment quality index was predicted to be 0.365 7 in 2030, 0.366 0 in 2040, and 0.366 5 in 2050. The distribution of production-living-ecological space is of great importance for the future development of the earth’s space and the construction of an ecological environment. |
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