| 全国不同城市化水平与大气污染的时空关系 |
| 摘要点击 1168 全文点击 172 投稿时间：2024-02-06 修订日期：2024-04-28 |
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| 中文关键词 城市化阶段 城市化水平 PM2.5 O3 协同变化 多尺度地理加权回归（MGWR） |
| 英文关键词 division of urbanization stages urbanization level PM2.5 O3 synergistic change multi-scale geographically weighted regression（MGWR） |
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| 中文摘要 |
| 研究全国不同城市化阶段城市化水平与大气污染的时空关系,对指导未来城市向减污和降碳的绿色方向发展具有重要的现实意义. 基于2005~2020年人均GDP栅格数据、土地利用类型数据、PM2.5和O3浓度遥感反演数据、气象栅格数据,采用钱纳里标准对2005、2010、2015和2020年全国城市划分城市化阶段；利用单因素方差分析（ANOVA）判断不同城市化阶段PM2.5和O3浓度的显著性关系,通过多尺度地理加权回归（MGWR）定量分析不同城市化阶段城市化水平与PM2.5和O3浓度协同变化的时空关联关系. 结果表明,2005~2020年全国城市化主要经历了6个阶段,其中,2005年处在初级产品阶段（PPS）和初级工业化阶段（PIS）的城市分别为110个和118个,2010年中国城市化阶段主要以工业化阶段为主,中期工业化阶段（MIS）和后期工业化阶段（LIS）的城市数量分别为139个和88个,而2015年和2020年中国城市化阶段主要以中后期工业化阶段和发达阶段为主,其中,初级发达阶段（PDS）和发达阶段（DS）的总体城市数量分别为80个和91个. 中国PM2.5和O3浓度变化趋势的空间分布以及在不同城市化阶段的平均值均具有显著差异. 从不同城市化阶段上看,PM2.5浓度平均值从PPS到DS全国整体呈现先上升后下降的变化趋势,工业化阶段平均PM2.5浓度高于初级和发达阶段. O3浓度平均值从PPS到DS全国整体呈上升趋势,发达阶段O3浓度平均值最高. MGWR分析结果表明,2005年和2010年城市建成区面积占比与PM2.5浓度回归系数高值区主要分布在云贵川城市群,而2015年和2020年回归系数高值区从云贵川向东北延伸,覆盖中国大部分地区. 2005~2020年城市建成区占比与O3浓度回归系数高值区主要分布在中国西部和中部,而东部回归系数明显低于其他地区,尤其是华南地区,回归系数整体为负. 协同分析结果表明,2005年和2010年PM2.5和O3浓度协同上升的城市主要集中分布在长江三角洲地区、云贵川地区、以及陕甘宁地区；2015年和2020年PM2.5和O3浓度协同上升的城市广泛分布于中国中部和东部. |
| 英文摘要 |
| This research investigates the spatial and temporal relationship between urbanization levels and air pollution in cities at different stages of urbanization in China, highlighting its significance for guiding cities towards green development with reduced pollution and carbon emissions. The study uses a range of datasets from 2005 to 2020, including per capita GDP raster data, land use type data, remotely sensed PM2.5 and O3 concentration data, and meteorological raster data. The urbanization stages for the years 2005, 2010, 2015, and 2020 were classified using the Chenery standard, facilitating a nuanced analysis of urban growth patterns. A one-way analysis of variance（ANOVA）was employed to examine the significance of differences in PM2.5 and O3 concentrations across urbanization stages, revealing distinct pollution profiles. Furthermore, multi-scale geographically weighted regression（MGWR）was applied to quantitatively analyze the spatial and temporal correlations between urbanization levels and the concentrations of PM2.5 and O3, offering insights into the complex dynamics at play. The findings indicate a progression through six urbanization stages from 2005 to 2020. In 2005, 110 cities were in the primary product stage （PPS）, and 118 were in the primary industrialization stage （PIS）. By 2010, the urbanization phase had shifted predominantly towards industrialization, with 139 cities in the medium-term industrialization stage （MIS） and 88 in the late industrialization stage （LIS）. The trend continued towards advanced stages, with the majority of cities in 2015 and 2020 being in the middle to late industrialization and developed stages. The number of cities in the primary developed stage （PDS）and the developed stage （DS）reached 80 and 91, respectively. The spatial distribution of PM2.5 and O3 concentration trends and their average values at different urbanization stages showed significant variance. From PPS to DS, the average PM2.5 concentration initially rose and then declined, with concentrations during the industrialization stage higher than in the primary and developed stages. In contrast, the average O3 concentration trended upward across all stages, reaching its peak in the developed stage. The MGWR results identified significant regional variations in the impact of urban built-up area proportions on PM2.5 and O3 concentrations. High-value areas for PM2.5 regression coefficients in 2005 and 2010 were predominantly found in the Yunnan-Guizhou-Sichuan urban cluster, extending northeast by 2015 and 2020 to cover most of China. Conversely, high-value areas for O3 regression coefficients from 2005 to 2020 were mainly in western and central China, with eastern regions, particularly in the south, showing significantly lower coefficients, indicating a negative correlation overall. Synergistic analysis of the data revealed that cities with concurrent increases in PM2.5 and O3 concentrations in 2005 and 2010 were concentrated in the Yangtze River Delta, Yunnan-Guizhou-Sichuan, and Shaanxi-Gansu-Ningxia regions. By 2015 and 2020, such cities were more broadly distributed across central and eastern China, highlighting the evolving nature of urban air pollution in relation to urbanization. |
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