| 基于STIRPAT模型的广西碳达峰路径 |
| 摘要点击 1283 全文点击 159 投稿时间：2024-02-28 修订日期：2024-04-26 |
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| 中文关键词 碳达峰 碳排放 广西 STIRPAT模型 岭回归 |
| 英文关键词 carbon peaking carbon emission Guangxi STIRPAT model ridge regression |
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| 中文摘要 |
| 为保障西部地区在发展的同时实现碳达峰的目标,以广西为例,收集2000~2021年广西人口、经济、社会、能源和城市发展等方面的统计数据,根据联合国政府间气候变化专门委员会（IPCC）推荐的方法核算2000~2021年的碳排放量,采用岭回归识别影响碳排放的关键因素,构建STIRPAT碳排放预测模型,预测3种典型发展路径情景下广西2022~2040年碳排放量. 结果表明,2000~2021年广西的CO2排放总量呈现整体上升趋势,从2000年的95.49 Mt增长到2021年的390.15 Mt,年均增长率为6.93%. 能源结构、产业结构、城镇化率是影响广西碳排放的三大显著影响因素. 高碳发展路径下,到2040年广西碳排放量达623.32 Mt,中碳发展路径下在2040年达591.20 Mt,而低碳发展路径下在2035年达到峰值531.99 Mt. 3种典型发展路径情景下,广西实现碳达峰需要面对不同的减排压力,只有低碳发展路径可能在2040年前实现碳达峰,如果想实现2030年碳达峰,则需进一步加强绿色低碳高质量发展. |
| 英文摘要 |
| In this work, to ensure that Western China achieves the goal of peaking carbon emissions while developing, considering Guangxi as an example, based on the statistical data of population, economy, society, energy, urban development, and other dimensions from 2000 to 2021, the total amount of carbon emissions and sinks from 2000 to 2021 was calculated according to the recommended formula of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change （IPCC）, the key factors affecting carbon emissions based on the ridge regression were identified, the STIRPAT carbon emission prediction model was constructed, and the carbon emissions of Guangxi from 2022 to 2040 were predicted for the three scenarios of different development paths. The results showed that the total carbon dioxide emissions （CO2） in Guangxi showed an overall upward trend from 2000 to 2021, growing from 95.49 Mt in 2000 to 390.15 Mt in 2021, with an average annual growth rate of 6.93%. Energy structure, industrial structure, and urbanization ratio were the three significant influencing factors on carbon emissions in Guangxi. The carbon emissions could be 623.32 Mt and 591.20 Mt by 2040 in the high-carbon scenario and the medium-carbon scenario, respectively, while in the low-carbon scenario, the carbon emissions could reach a peak at 531.99 Mt in 2035. In the three designed scenarios, Guangxi needs to face different emission reduction pressures to realize carbon peaking, and only the low-carbon development path can achieve carbon peaking before 2040. If carbon peaking in Guangxi needs to be achieved by 2030, green, low-carbon, and high-quality development should be further strengthened. |
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