| 广东省减污降碳与经济发展的动态协调效应 |
| 摘要点击 1300 全文点击 232 投稿时间：2024-02-02 修订日期：2024-04-27 |
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| 中文关键词 减污 降碳 经济发展 冲击响应 广东省 |
| 英文关键词 pollution reduction carbon reduction economic development shock response Guangdong Province |
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| 中文摘要 |
| 基于广东省21个城市2006~2020年环境污染物和二氧化碳排放、地区生产总值平衡面板数据,分别将其视作系统内生变量,采用PVAR模型考察减污降碳和经济发展之间的动态均衡关系. 结果发现：①广东省经济发展存在长期惯性效应,相较于减污和降碳,已形成持续的自我增长机制. ②经济发展与环境污染治理的因果关系主要体现为环境污染排放对经济发展的抑制效应,水污染物排放对经济发展冲击响应由正转负,大气污染物对经济发展冲击呈“V”型响应曲线,经济发展对环境污染物具有长期促进作用. ③碳排放与经济发展尚未形成双向因果关系,经济发展对碳排放存在滞后的、长期的正向趋弱冲击,符合环境库兹涅兹曲线假说. ④经济发展与减污降碳协同之间呈现出复杂而微妙的关系,经济发展对减污降碳协同治理产生正向促进效应,而减污降碳协同进程的落后则在一定程度上抑制了经济发展. 实现广东省经济高质量发展与生态环境保护“双赢”局面,必须发挥经济发展带动减污降碳协同增效的“双重红利”效应,同向发力推动产业结构优化,加大科技创新投入,夯实减排降碳工作基础,深入贯彻碳排放达峰战略部署. |
| 英文摘要 |
| Based on the panel data of the regional GDP balance of pollutant and carbon dioxide emissions in 21 cities of Guangdong Province from 2006 to 2020, the dynamic equilibrium relationship between pollution reduction and carbon reduction and the economy was investigated using a PVAR model. The results were as follows： ① A self-growth mechanism of inertia effect exists in the Guangdong economy compared with pollution reduction and carbon reduction. ② The causal relationship between the economy and pollution control was mainly reflected in the inhibition effect of pollution discharge on the economy. The response of water pollutant discharge to economic shock changed from positive to negative, and the response curve of air pollutants to economic shock was V-shaped. The economy had a promoting effect on pollutants. ③ No two-way causal relationship exists between carbon emissions and economy, and the positive weakening impact of the economy on carbon emissions lagged behind, which accords with the Kuznets curve hypothesis. ④ A complex and subtle relationship exists between the economy and the synergy of pollution reduction and carbon reduction. The economy had a positive promoting effect on the synergy of pollution reduction and carbon reduction, while the backwardness of the synergy of pollution reduction and carbon reduction inhibited the economy to a certain extent. To achieve the "win-win" situation of high economy and ecological protection in Guangdong Province, we must give full play to the "double dividend" effect of the economy driving the synergy of pollution reduction and carbon reduction, promote the optimization of industrial structure, increase investment in scientific and technological innovation, consolidate the foundation of emission reduction and carbon reduction, and thoroughly implement the strategic deployment of carbon emission peaking. |
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