| 基于PLUS与InVEST模型的新疆碳储量变化及预测 |
| 摘要点击 1499 全文点击 162 投稿时间：2023-12-30 修订日期：2024-04-03 |
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| 中文关键词 土地利用 碳储量 PLUS-InVEST模型 新疆 贡献率分析 |
| 英文关键词 land use carbon stock PLUS-InVEST model Xinjiang analysis of the contribution |
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| 中文摘要 |
| 土地利用变化是造成陆地生态系统碳储量变化的主要原因,研究干旱区不同土地利用类型碳储量变化的影响机制,模拟未来不同情景下土地利用和碳储量的变化,有助于为干旱区制定科学的土地利用政策从而推动该区域高质量可持续的发展.基于2000~2020年新疆土地利用数据,耦合PLUS-InVEST模型分析了2000~2020年新疆土地利用和碳储量的时空变化特征,并预测了自然发展（Z1）、经济发展（Z2）、可持续发展（Z3）、耕地保护发展（Z4）和生态保护发展情景（Z5）下的2030年新疆土地利用和碳储量变化.结果表明：①2000~2020年间,新疆碳储量总值呈现出先减少后增加的总体减少趋势,共减少4.268 2×108 t,草地大量退化成未利用地是新疆碳储量减少的主要原因.②不同土地利用类型碳储量变化贡献率分析表明,耕地、林地、草地、水域和未利用地碳储量变化主要影响因素为自然因素,建设用地碳储量变化主要影响因素为人文经济因素.新疆碳储量变化的原因是自然和人文经济因素共同影响的结果.③与2020年相比,新疆2030年5种发展情景下碳储量都保持增加趋势,其中可持续发展情景（Z3）下碳储量增加值最多为66.723 6×106 t,该发展情景是未来提高新疆碳储量保证经济发展最优的模式.以上研究结果可以为新疆未来国土空间规划和实现“碳中和”目标提供理论依据. |
| 英文摘要 |
| Land use change is the main cause of carbon stock changes in terrestrial ecosystems. Studying the impact mechanisms of carbon stock changes in different land use types in the arid zone and simulating future changes in land use and carbon stock under different scenarios will help to formulate a scientific land use policy for the arid zone to promote high-quality and sustainable development in the region. Based on the Xinjiang land use data from 2000 to 2020, the coupled PLUS-InVEST model analyzed the spatial and temporal characteristics of land use and carbon stock in Xinjiang from 2000 to 2020 and predicted the changes in land use and carbon stock in Xinjiang in 2030 under the scenarios of natural development （Z1）, economic development （Z2）, sustainable development （Z3）, arable land preservation development （Z4）, and ecological protection development （Z5）. The results showed that ① From 2000 to 2020, the total value of carbon stock in Xinjiang showed an overall decreasing trend of first decreasing and then increasing, with a total decrease of 4.268 2×108 t. The large amount of grassland degraded into unutilized land was the main reason for the decrease in carbon stock in Xinjiang. ② Analysis of the contribution rate of carbon stock changes in different land use types showed that the main influencing factors for carbon stock changes in cropland, forest land, grassland, watersheds, and unutilized land were natural factors, and the main influencing factors for carbon stock changes in construction land were humanistic and economic. Additionally, the reasons for the changes in carbon stock in Xinjiang were the result of the joint influence of natural factors and humanistic and economic factors. ③ Compared with that in 2020, the five development scenarios of Xinjiang in 2030 kept the trend of increasing carbon stock, among which the sustainable development （Z3） scenario increased 66.723 6×106 t the most. This was the optimal development mode to increase the carbon stock of Xinjiang in the future and consider economic development. The results of the above study can provide a theoretical basis for the future spatial planning of Xinjiang and the realization of the goal of “carbon neutrality”. |
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