| 山东省土地利用碳排放变化的时空特征及影响因素分析 |
| 摘要点击 2525 全文点击 291 投稿时间：2024-01-25 修订日期：2024-04-07 |
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| 中文关键词 土地利用 碳排放 山东省 时空特征 影响因素 |
| 英文关键词 land use carbon emissions Shandong Province spatial-temporal characteristics influencing factors |
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| 中文摘要 |
| 探究土地利用碳排放时空演化特征及其影响因素,对土地利用结构优化、减排政策制定以及区域低碳经济发展具有重要意义. 基于土地覆被与能源消费数据,构建多元参数土地利用碳排放核算体系,计算2000~2020年山东省土地利用碳排放,并采用基尼系数和对数平均迪氏指数法（LMDI）确定土地利用碳排放的时空演变特征及其影响因素. 结果表明：①2000~2020年山东省建设用地、林地和水体面积增加,耕地、草地和未利用地面积减少. 其中耕地减少1.15万km2,建设用地增加了1.16万km2,土地利用类型间转移最突出的是耕地向建设用地的转入（1.09万km2）. ②山东省土地利用碳排放量从2000年的52.70×106 t增加到2020年的352.97×106 t,但年均增长率从13.40%下降到7.28%,建设用地和耕地是主要的碳源和碳汇. ③山东省土地利用碳排放整体呈东高西低的空间格局,在栅格尺度上具有显著的空间不均衡性（Gini> 0.5）. ④经济发展是导致山东省土地利用碳排放增长的主要因素,贡献率达到121.33%,其次是建设用地规模效应（33.39%）,而能源结构（-11.12%）、能源效率（-20.16%）与人口密度效应（-23.44%）抑制土地利用碳排放增加. |
| 英文摘要 |
| Exploring the spatial-temporal evolution characteristics of land use carbon emissions and their influencing factors is of great significance for the optimization of land use structure, the formulation of emission reduction policies, and the development of a regional low-carbon economy. Based on land cover and energy consumption data, a multi-parameter land use carbon emission accounting system was constructed to calculate land use carbon emissions in Shandong Province. Moreover, the spatial-temporal evolution and influencing factors of land use carbon emissions were analyzed based on the Gini coefficient and logarithmic mean Divisia index. The results indicated that ① From 2000 to 2020, construction land, woodland, and water area showed a generally increasing trend, while cropland, grassland, and unused land area showed a decreasing trend. The spatial change in land use types was mainly concentrated in the conversion of cropland into construction land （1.09×104 km2）. ② In the study period, carbon emissions from land use in Shandong Province increased from 52.70 million tons to 352.97 million tons, and the annual growth rate decreased from 13.40% to 7.28%, construction land was the primary carbon source, and cropland sequestered carbon. ③ Land use carbon emissions showed significant spatial imbalance at a grid level （Gini > 0.5）, with an overall spatial pattern of “high in the east” and “low in the west.” ④ Economic development was the dominant leading factor for the growth of carbon emissions from land use in Shandong Province （contribution rate of 121.33%）, followed by the construction land area effect （33.39%）, while energy structure （-11.12%）, energy efficiency （-20.16%）, and population size effects （-23.44%） limited the increase in carbon emissions. |
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