| 模拟多情景下桂西南峰丛洼地流域土地利用变化及生态系统服务价值的空间响应 |
| 摘要点击 1618 全文点击 203 投稿时间：2023-12-16 修订日期：2024-03-14 |
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| 中文关键词 模拟多情景 土地利用变化 生态系统服务价值 CA-Markov模型 桂西南峰丛洼地流域 |
| 英文关键词 multi-scenario simulation land use change ecosystem service value CA-Markov model peak cluster depression basin of southwest Guangxi |
| 作者 | 单位 | E-mail | | 张亚丽 | 北部湾大学资源与环境学院, 钦州 535011
北部湾海洋地理信息资源开发利用重点实验室, 钦州 535011 | zhangyali1100@hotmail.com | | 陈亮 | 北部湾大学资源与环境学院, 钦州 535011 | | | 田义超 | 北部湾大学资源与环境学院, 钦州 535011
北部湾海洋地理信息资源开发利用重点实验室, 钦州 535011 | tianyichao1314@yeah.net | | 林俊良 | 北部湾大学资源与环境学院, 钦州 535011 | | | 黄柱军 | 北部湾大学资源与环境学院, 钦州 535011 | | | 杨芸珍 | 北部湾大学资源与环境学院, 钦州 535011 | | | 张强 | 北部湾大学资源与环境学院, 钦州 535011 | | | 陶进 | 北部湾大学资源与环境学院, 钦州 535011 | |
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| 中文摘要 |
| 模拟多情景下桂西南峰丛洼地流域土地利用变化引起的生态系统服务价值改变,对保障流域生态安全和提升区域生态系统服务价值能力具有重要意义.基于CA-Logistic-Markov模型模拟2030年自然发展、粮食安全和生态保护情景下研究区土地利用,并根据当量因子修正模型,计算各情景下生态系统服务价值,定量分析了桂西南峰丛洼地流域生态系统服务价值的时空动态特征.结果表明：①基于CA-Markov模型模拟的2020年土地利用对比2020年土地利用现状,标准Kappa指数为0.917,位置Kappa指数为0.952,数值Kappa指数为0.958.在对2030年桂西南峰丛洼地流域的土地利用格局的模拟上,CA-Markov模型的模拟具有较高的准确性与参考性. ②2000年、 2010年和2020年研究区生态系统服务价值分别为2 708.81亿、 2 757.80亿和2 783.32亿元,整体呈上升的趋势. ③在自然发展、粮食安全和生态保护情景下,生态系统服务价值依次为2 821.38亿、 2 732.06亿和2 841.43亿元.研究区生态系统服务价值整体呈现西北高东南低的空间分布特征.与2020年相比,粮食安全情景下的生态系统服务价值明显减少,生态系统遭受破坏；自然发展情景和生态保护情景的生态系统服务价值有所上升,生态环境质量有所提高. ④生态服务价值的热点和置信度较高的冷点集聚性较强,热点主要集中在上游的高海拔区域,置信度较高的冷点主要分布在研究区下游的丘陵地区.研究结果揭示了土地利用变化背景下桂西南峰丛洼地流域生态系统服务价值的时空格局,可为优化土地利用结构和空间格局、提升生态系统服务提供科学依据. |
| 英文摘要 |
| Simulating the changes in ecosystem service value induced by land use changes in the peak cluster depression basin of southwestern Guangxi under multiple scenarios is of great importance for ensuring ecological security in the basin and enhancing regional ecosystem service value capabilities. Based on the CA-Logistic-Markov model, the land use of the study area was simulated under natural development, food security, and ecological protection scenarios in 2030. The ecosystem service value was calculated under each scenario using the equivalent factor correction model, and the spatiotemporal dynamic characteristics of the ecosystem service value in the peak cluster depression basin of southwestern Guangxi were quantitatively analyzed. The results showed as follows： ① Compared with the current situation of land use in 2020 and the predicted simulated land use in 2020, the standard Kappa index was 0.917, the location Kappa index was 0.952, and the numerical Kappa index was 0.958. In the simulation of the land use pattern of the peak cluster basin in southwest Guangxi in 2030, the CA-Markov model had high accuracy and reference-ability. ② Ecosystem service values in the study area for the periods 2000-2020 were 270.881 billion, 275.78 billion, and 278.332 billion yuan, indicating an overall upward trend. ③ The value of ecosystem services in the natural development, the food security, and the ecological protection scenarios was 282 138 million, 273 206 million, and 284 143 million, respectively. The study area exhibited a spatial distribution of ecosystem service values with higher values in the northwest and lower values in the southeast. In comparison to that in 2020, the ecosystem service value significantly decreased under the food security scenario, reflecting ecosystem degradation. Meanwhile, ecosystem service values increased under the natural development and ecological protection scenarios, signifying an improvement in ecological environmental quality. ④ Ecosystem service value hot spots and cold spots with high confidence had strong clustering and the hot spots were mainly concentrated in the northwestern mountainous area, whereas the cold spots with high confidence were mainly distributed in the southeastern plain area of the study area. The research results revealed the spatiotemporal pattern of land use change and ecosystem service value in the peak cluster depression basin of southwestern Guangxi under multiple scenarios, which can provide scientific basis for optimizing land use structure and spatial pattern and enhancing ecosystem services. |
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