| 洞庭湖流域碳储量变化对未来气候和政策的响应 |
| 摘要点击 1603 全文点击 189 投稿时间：2023-12-05 修订日期：2024-03-02 |
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| 中文关键词 土地利用 PLUS模型 碳储量 政策优化 多情景模拟 |
| 英文关键词 land use PLUS model carbon storage policy optimization multi-scenario simulation |
| 作者 | 单位 | E-mail | | 王惠 | 湖南大学环境科学与工程学院, 环境生物与控制教育部重点实验室, 长沙 410082 | wh15186925264@hnu.edu.cn | | 王凌霞 | 湖南大学环境科学与工程学院, 环境生物与控制教育部重点实验室, 长沙 410082 | | | 李忠武 | 湖南师范大学地理科学学院, 洞庭湖流域生态环境变化与固碳增汇湖南省重点实验室, 长沙 410081 | lizw@hnu.edu.cn | | 侯应龙 | 湖南师范大学地理科学学院, 洞庭湖流域生态环境变化与固碳增汇湖南省重点实验室, 长沙 410081 | | | 聂小东 | 湖南师范大学地理科学学院, 洞庭湖流域生态环境变化与固碳增汇湖南省重点实验室, 长沙 410081 | |
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| 中文摘要 |
| 为探究气候变化与不同管理政策背景下陆地生态系统碳增汇潜力,以我国洞庭湖流域为例,采用PLUS模型和《2006年IPCC国家温室气体清单指南》模拟预测未来40年间不同气候-政策情景下陆地生态系统碳储量变化.结果表明： ①2020~2060年间,自然发展情景和经济协调情景下建设用地快速扩张,林地大量减少；生态优先情景主要是由草地转入林地. ②2020年洞庭湖流域总碳储量为3.6×109 t,到2060年自然发展情景下碳储量仅增加2.3×108 t,经济协调情景和生态优先情景下分别增加4.5×108 t和4.7×108 t,验证了实施生态保护政策是促进碳增汇的有效途径.③碳储量变化结果表明,加大耕地和草地的土地管理投入以及实施渐进式造林有利于保持持续碳汇.控制建设用地的扩张并划定规划开发区,有利于减少碳损失.研究结果可为优化土地管理提供理论依据. |
| 英文摘要 |
| In this study, we explored the impact of land-use changes on carbon sinks in terrestrial ecosystems from a watershed perspective under the backdrop of “carbon peak and neutrality.” This will provide robust support for scientific decision-making and the sustainable development of integrated watershed management. Watershed ecosystems encompass natural, social, and economic dimensions and are crucial for improving regional ecological quality and ensuring sustainable development. The Dongting Lake Basin （DLB） is situated at the junction of China's Yangtze River Economic Belt and Coastal Economic Belt, playing an important role in maintaining ecological balance and coordinating economic development. In recent years, rapid economic growth, prolonged agricultural activities, and substantial population pressure have accelerated wetland degradation, the expansion of construction land, and the reduction of ecological land within the basin. Consequently, this has led to a decline in the carbon sequestration capacity of terrestrial ecosystems. This study, utilizing the PLUS model, aims to simulate the spatial dynamics of land use within the DLB across three climate-policy scenarios spanning the temporal domain from 2030 to 2060. Furthermore, employing the IPCC guidelines for national greenhouse gas inventories, the investigation projects the ramifications of prospective land use alterations on the carbon storage （CS） within terrestrial ecosystems in the DLB over the aforementioned timeframe. The outcomes delineated shifts in CS within terrestrial ecosystems under diverse future scenarios. The following key findings were emanated from the analysis： ① During the temporal span from 2020 to 2060, under the auspices of the Natural Development Scenario （NDS）, the encroachment of construction land primarily targeted arable land, forests, and grasslands. ② The Economic Co-ordination Scenario （ECS）, akin to the NDS, curtailed the diversion of cropland and aquatic resources. ③ Conversely, the Ecological Priority Scenario （EPS） prioritized the transformation of grasslands into forests, ensuring the sustained expansion of wooded areas. Moreover, the estimated CS of the DLB was at 3.6×109 t as of 2020. Projections suggested that under the NDS, the CS was slated to witness a meager increase of 2.3×108 t by 2060. Contrarily, the ECS and EPS anticipated CS increments of 4.5×108 t and 4.7×108 t, respectively. All three scenarios revealed a diminishing trend in carbon sinks over the ensuing four decades, with the NDS experiencing the swiftest decline and the EPS exhibiting a more gradual descent, stabilizing by 2050. The findings suggested that policies centered on ecological conservation could significantly augment carbon sequestration. To sustain these carbon sinks, prospective policies ought to be oriented towards substantial investments in agricultural and grassland land management, coupled with the implementation of progressive afforestation strategies. Additionally, efforts to reduce urban land sprawl and careful planning of development zones are also indispensable measures to reduce the loss of CS. In summation, this study furnishes innovative strategies and policy recommendations, thereby contributing to the discourse on the formulation of optimal land management practices. |
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