| 碳中和目标下长三角碳源/汇时空特征及其影响因素 |
| 摘要点击 2967 全文点击 289 投稿时间：2023-12-11 修订日期：2024-03-14 |
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| 中文关键词 碳中和 碳源/汇 城市扩张 社会经济因素 地理探测器 长三角 |
| 英文关键词 carbon neutrality carbon sources/sinks urban expansion socioeconomic factors geodetector the Yangtze River Delta |
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| 中文摘要 |
| 明确碳源/汇与城市发展的动态关系对于区域实现碳中和与可持续发展至关重要.采用净生态系统生产力（NEP）评估了2005~2020年长三角陆地生态系统碳汇,利用地理探测器探究了长三角城市扩张、社会经济因素及其交互作用对碳源/汇的影响,并对城市实现碳中和的差距进行评估.结果表明： ①2005~2020年长三角NEP贡献为69.13 Mt·a-1,城市扩张导致碳汇损失1.97 Mt.碳汇抵消的碳排放约为3%~6%. ②高碳源区主要分布在长三角中东部,高碳汇区主要分布在浙江省和安徽省南部.森林资源富集的黄山市和丽水市碳排放与碳汇差距较小,最有潜力实现碳中和.徐州和马鞍山等工业或资源型城市以及上海和苏州等发达城市实现碳中和则面临较大压力. ③城市扩张、经济产业集聚、人口高密度分布和紧凑的城市形态是导致长三角碳排放与碳汇差距扩大的关键因素.生态空间的增加可以有效降低碳排放.城市扩张和社会经济发展可以相互耦合,并对碳排放产生显著的协同效应. |
| 英文摘要 |
| Clarifying the dynamic relationship between carbon sources/sinks and urban development is crucial to achieving carbon neutrality and sustainable development in the region. This study used net ecosystem productivity （NEP） to evaluate the carbon sinks of the terrestrial ecosystem in the Yangtze River Delta （YRD） from 2005 to 2020. Geodetectors were used to explore the impact of urban expansion, socio-economic factors, and their interactions on carbon sources/sinks in the YRD and to evaluate the gap in achieving carbon neutrality in cities. The results showed that： ① In 2005-2020, the NEP contribution of the YRD was 69.13 Mt·a-1 and the loss of carbon sinks due to urban expansion was 1.97 Mt. The carbon emissions offset by carbon sinks were approximately 3% to 6%. ② The high carbon source areas were mainly distributed in the central and eastern YRD and the high carbon sink areas were primarily distributed in Zhejiang Province and southern Anhui Province. The forest-rich cities of Huangshan and Lishui, with smaller gaps between carbon emissions and carbon sinks, had the greatest potential for achieving carbon neutrality. Industrial or resource-based cities such as Xuzhou and Maanshan faced greater pressure to achieve carbon neutrality. Developed cities such as Shanghai and Suzhou had the largest carbon neutrality gap. ③ Urban expansion, economic and industrial agglomeration, high-density distribution of the population, and compact urban form were the key variables leading to the widening gap between carbon emissions and carbon sinks in the YRD. The increase in ecological space could effectively reduce carbon emissions. Urban expansion and socioeconomic development could be coupled with each other and have significant synergistic effects on carbon emissions. |
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