| 城镇化视角下建筑碳排放达峰动态情景模拟 |
| 摘要点击 2899 全文点击 473 投稿时间：2023-12-13 修订日期：2024-02-24 |
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| 中文关键词 城镇化 建筑部门碳排放 碳达峰 系统动力学 情景模拟 |
| 英文关键词 urbanization building carbon emissions peaking carbon dioxide emission system dynamics scenario simulation |
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| 中文摘要 |
| 随着中国城镇化进程的快速发展,建筑部门的能源消耗和碳排放量将持续增长,探究区域建筑碳排放未来的动态演变趋势对于中国实现“双碳”目标至关重要. 基于城镇化视角构建“城镇化-建筑碳排放”系统动力学模型,揭示城镇化相关因素对建筑碳排放的作用机制. 在此基础上,借助多情景分析对京津冀地区2000~2050年建筑碳排放演变趋势和达峰情况进行动态模拟. 结果表明：①在基准情景下农村居住建筑、城镇居住建筑和公共建筑碳排放分别于2027年、2028年和2037年达到峰值（以CO2计,下同）0.60亿、0.99亿和1.95亿t. ②低碳情景下,城镇居住建筑碳排放达峰时间最早,在2024年达到峰值0.88亿t. ③深度低碳情景下,总体建筑碳排放达峰时间比低碳情景提前5 a,将在2028年达到峰值2.61亿t. ④敏感性分析显示公共建筑碳排放因子和空间维度的人均公共建筑面积是影响建筑碳排放的主要因素,人口维度的城镇人口占比次之. 最后为京津冀地区政府进行节能减排规划提出建议. |
| 英文摘要 |
| With the rapid development of urbanization in China, the energy consumption and carbon emissions in the building sector will continue to grow. Therefore, the future dynamic evolution of building carbon emissions must be crucially investigated to achieve the “dual carbon” target in China. A system dynamics model of “urbanization-building carbon emissions” was constructed from the perspective of urbanization for revealing the mechanism of urbanization-related factors on building carbon emissions. On this basis, a dynamic simulation of the evolution trend and peak situation of building carbon emissions in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei （BTH） Region from 2000 to 2050 was carried out using multi-scenario analysis. The results showed that： ① Under the baseline scenario, the carbon emissions of rural residential buildings, urban residential buildings, and commercial buildings peak in 2027, 2028, and 2037, respectively, with peaks （in CO2） of 0.60×108, 0.99×108, and 1.95×108 tons. ② Under the low-carbon scenario, the peak （in CO2, the same below） time of carbon emissions of urban residential buildings was the most advanced, reaching the peak of 0.88×108 tons in 2024. ③ In the deep low-carbon scenario, the peak time of carbon emissions of the overall buildings occurred five years earlier than that in the low-carbon scenario. It was predicted to peak at 2.61×108 tons in 2028, reaching the 2030 carbon peak target. ④ The sensitivity analysis showed that the carbon emission factor of commercial buildings and the per capita commercial building space floor in the spatial dimension were the major factors influencing the building carbon emissions, followed by the percentage of the urban population in the population dimension. Finally, suggestions are made for the government of the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region to carry out energy conservation and emission reduction planning. |
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