| 长江经济带农业碳补偿率的时空演进特征及碳补偿潜力预测 |
| 摘要点击 1918 全文点击 410 投稿时间：2023-12-04 修订日期：2024-02-19 |
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| 中文关键词 农业碳补偿率 净零排放 STIRPAT模型 情景设置 潜力预测 |
| 英文关键词 agricultural carbon compensation rate net zero emissions STIRPAT model scenario setting potential prediction |
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| 中文摘要 |
| 分别基于长江经济带地级市及以上城市和省级面板数据,测度2006~2021年农业碳排放量、碳汇量及碳补偿率,分析其演进特征；基于STIRPAT模型和岭回归分析,识别长江经济带11个省市农业碳排放各自的影响因素,并结合情景分析法,预测基准情景下,11个省市2022~2025年的农业碳排放量,分析其农业“碳达峰”进程；同时预测11个省市2022~2025年的农业碳汇量,进而通过农业碳补偿率推测其农业“碳中和”进程,总结出不同省市实现农业“碳达峰,碳中和”的有效路径.结果表明：①观测期内长江经济带农业碳排放变化大致呈倒“U”型,并于2015年达峰,峰值为33 312.65×104 t；农业碳汇波动幅度较小,总体呈上升趋势；农业碳补偿率上升趋势明显,但仍属于“净碳排”区域. ②农业碳补偿率区域差异突出,存在极化现象,“净碳汇”城市显著少于“净碳排”城市. ③上海、浙江和四川于2006年实现了农业碳达峰,安徽和重庆在2012年实现,其余省市碳排放上升趋势明显. ④安徽、重庆、四川和云南跨过“农业碳中和线”,实现了农业碳中和,江苏有望在2026~2030年实现,其余省市农业碳中和难度较大. |
| 英文摘要 |
| Based on the panel data of prefecture-level cities and above and provincial-level cities in the Yangtze River Economic Belt, respectively, this study measured the agricultural carbon emissions, carbon sinks, and carbon offset rates from 2006 to 2021 and analyzed their evolution characteristics. Based on the STIRPAT model and ridge regression analysis, this study identified the factors affecting agricultural carbon emissions in the 11 provinces and municipalities in the Yangtze River Economic Zone, combined them with the scenario analysis method to predict the agricultural carbon emissions under the baseline scenario in the period of 2022 to 2025, and analyzed the process of “carbon peaking.” Simultaneously, this study predicted the agricultural carbon sinks of 11 provinces and cities from 2022 to 2025 and then speculated their agricultural “carbon neutral” process under the framework of agricultural carbon compensation rate, so as to summarize the effective paths for different provinces and cities to achieve agricultural “carbon peak and carbon neutral.” The results showed that： ① Changes in agricultural carbon emissions in the Yangtze River Economic Zone during the observation period followed an inverted U-shape and peaked in 2015 at 33 312.65×104 tons. The fluctuation of agricultural carbon sinks was relatively small, with an overall upward trend. The upward trend of the agricultural carbon offset rate was obvious, but it still belonged to the “net carbon emission” region. ② Regional differences of agricultural carbon offsetting rate were prominent, and there was a polarization phenomenon, with “net carbon sink” cities significantly less than “net carbon emission” cities. ③ Shanghai, Zhejiang, and Sichuan reached the peak of agricultural carbon emissions in 2006, which Anhui and Chongqing reached in 2012, and the rest of the provinces and municipalities showed a clear upward trend. ④ Anhui, Chongqing, Sichuan, and Yunnan crossed the “agricultural carbon neutral line” and achieved agricultural carbon neutrality. Jiangsu was expected to achieve this in 2026-2030, whereas the remaining provinces and municipalities faced greater difficulties. |
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