| 江苏省电力行业不同低碳发展路径的二氧化碳与大气污染物协同减排效益分析 |
| 摘要点击 1971 全文点击 389 投稿时间：2023-11-27 修订日期：2024-02-25 |
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| 中文关键词 江苏 电力行业 碳达峰 减污降碳 GAINS模型 |
| 英文关键词 Jiangsu power industry peak carbon dioxide emissions reduction of pollution and carbon emissions GAINS model |
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| 中文摘要 |
| 电力行业是江苏省主要的二氧化碳（CO2）排放来源,同时也是二氧化硫（SO2）、氮氧化物（NOx）和颗粒物（PM）等污染物的重要排放源.为应对气候变化、助力“碳达峰碳中和”目标的实现,江苏省发布了一系列电力行业低碳发展政策.这些政策在降低碳排放的同时,也会对大气污染物产生重要的协同减排效益.基于江苏省的电力低碳发展规划,构建了基准情景（BAU）与4种低碳发展情景：现行政策情景（CLE）、IEA目标情景（IEA）、加速煤电淘汰情景1（STE1）、加速煤电淘汰情景2（STE2）,使用计量经济学模型预测江苏省未来电力需求,并结合温室气体-大气污染相互作用和协同模型（GAINS）定量分析了江苏省电力低碳政策对该地区CO2、SO2、NOx和PM等主要大气污染物排放的影响.结果表明,江苏省电力需求逐年递增,年增长率约为4.01%. BAU情景下,碳排放在2030年左右达峰,碳峰值排放量为462.03 Mt；IEA情景下,在2028年左右达峰,峰值排放量为380.27 Mt；CLE情景下,在2026年达峰,为353.46 Mt；STE1和STE2情景下,碳排放量已经达峰,在2020年后持续下降. 4种情景下天然气（GAS）、核能（NUC）、太阳能光伏（SPV）、风能（WND）替代发电和普通煤电厂比例优化（PP）带来的减污降碳协同效益较高；生物质能（OS1）和不可再生垃圾能（OS2）的部署会带来SO2较为显著的排放增加；碳捕集与储存改造煤电（CCS）只有在2035年才表现出较大的协同效益.电厂发展OS1和OS2燃料替代应更多地关注SO2减排；升级改造CCS技术应更多地关注颗粒物减排.研究结果为江苏省电力行业减污降碳协同增效提供了参考和决策依据. |
| 英文摘要 |
| The power industry is the main source of carbon dioxide （CO2） emissions in Jiangsu Province and also an important source of sulfur dioxide （SO2）, nitrogen oxides （NOx）, and particulate matter （PM）. In order to address climate change and contribute to the goal of "carbon peaking and carbon neutrality," Jiangsu Province has implemented a series of low-carbon development policies in the power industry. These policies not only reduce carbon emissions but also have important synergistic emission reduction benefits for atmospheric pollutants. Based on the low-carbon development plan for electricity in Jiangsu Province, a baseline scenario （BAU） and four low-carbon development scenarios have been constructed： current policy scenario （CLE）, IEA target scenario （IEA）, accelerated coal-fired power phaseout scenario 1 （STE1）, and scenario 2 （STE2）. An econometric model was used to predict the future electricity demand in Jiangsu Province, and the greenhouse gas-air pollution interactions and synergies （GAINS） model was employed to quantitatively analyze the impact of low-carbon policies in the power sector on the emissions of CO2, SO2, NOx, and PM, which are the major air pollutants in the region. The results showed that the electricity demand in Jiangsu Province has been increasing year by year, with an annual growth rate of approximately 4.01%. Under the BAU scenario, carbon emissions were projected to peak around 2030, with a peak carbon emission level of 462.03 Mt. Under the IEA scenario, it should reach its peak around 2028, with a peak emission level of 380.27 Mt. Under the CLE scenario, the peak would be expected to occur around 2026 at 353.46 Mt. In both STE1 and STE2 scenarios, carbon emissions had reached their peak and were continuously declining after 2020. In all scenarios, the replacement of conventional coal-fired power plants with natural gas （GAS）, nuclear power （NUC）, solar photovoltaic （SPV）, and wind power （WND） showed high synergistic benefits in pollution reduction and carbon reduction. The deployment of biomass energy （OS1） and non-renewable waste energy （OS2） will result in a significant increase in SO2 emissions. Carbon capture and storage （CCS） transformation of coal-fired power only showed significant synergistic benefits after 2035. The development of OS1 and OS2 fuel substitutes in power plants should focus more on reducing SO2 emissions, while upgrading and retrofitting CCS technology should prioritize the reduction of particulate matter emissions. The research findings provide a reference and decision-making basis for the synergistic efficiency of pollution reduction and carbon reduction in the power industry in Jiangsu Province. |
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