| 气候变化与作物物候响应对福建省耕地土壤有机碳的影响 |
| 摘要点击 1509 全文点击 271 投稿时间：2023-09-19 修订日期：2023-12-29 |
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| 中文关键词 气候变暖 物候变化 作物生长 机器学习 数字土壤有机碳制图 |
| 英文关键词 climate changes phenological changes crop growth machine learning digital soil organic carbon mapping |
| 作者 | 单位 | E-mail | | 李一凡 | 福建农林大学资源与环境学院, 福州 350002
土壤生态系统健康与调控福建省高校重点实验室, 福州 350002 | 1210807014@fafu.edu.cn | | 毋亭 | 福建农林大学资源与环境学院, 福州 350002
土壤生态系统健康与调控福建省高校重点实验室, 福州 350002 | wuting@fafu.edu.cn | | 姚园 | 福建农林大学资源与环境学院, 福州 350002
土壤生态系统健康与调控福建省高校重点实验室, 福州 350002 | | | 黎志强 | 福建农林大学资源与环境学院, 福州 350002
土壤生态系统健康与调控福建省高校重点实验室, 福州 350002 | | | 沈金泉 | 福建省农田建设与土壤肥料技术总站, 福州 350003 | | | 翁怀楷 | 福建农林大学乡村振兴学院, 福州 350002 | | | 张黎明 | 福建农林大学资源与环境学院, 福州 350002
土壤生态系统健康与调控福建省高校重点实验室, 福州 350002 | | | 邢世和 | 福建农林大学资源与环境学院, 福州 350002
土壤生态系统健康与调控福建省高校重点实验室, 福州 350002 | |
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| 中文摘要 |
| 气候变化对耕地土壤有机碳的影响机制研究是气候变化背景下耕地质量管理的基础. 气候变化下作物物候的响应对耕地土壤有机碳也有重要影响. 但目前的研究主要关注气候变化或气候变化下作物物候响应对耕地土壤有机碳的独立影响,鲜有研究分析气候变化与作物物候响应协同影响下耕地土壤有机碳的变化,以及区分量化二者对耕地土壤有机碳动态变化的贡献率. 基于2008年和2021年耕地土壤表层样点数据、2008~2021年每年的季前和季中气候数据以及由2007~2022年增强植被指数时间序列提取的物候参数数据,利用随机森林算法构建土壤有机碳预测模型,通过模拟2008~2021年土壤有机碳的总变化、气候单独变化下的土壤有机碳变化、气候变化与作物物候响应协同影响下土壤有机碳的变化,区分量化了气候变化与气候变化下作物物候响应对耕地土壤有机碳变化的贡献率,并分析了福建省耕地土壤有机碳变化的优势影响因子及其空间分布. 结果表明：①在气候变化与作物物候响应的协同影响下,2008~2021年福建省74.15%的耕地区域土壤有机碳呈减少态势,平均减少量为2.20 g·kg-1,25.85%的耕地区域土壤有机碳呈增加态势,平均增加量为1.48 g·kg-1；②季前气候、气候变化下物候响应、季中气候和品种改变等农业管理措施调整下物候变化对土壤有机碳变化的平均贡献率依次为34.08%、28.56%、22.75%和14.61%,整体而言,气候变化对福建省耕地土壤有机碳变化的影响大于气候变化下作物物候的响应；③气候变化与气候变化下物候响应共同为优势影响因子的区域面积最大,占全省耕地面积的47.06%,其次为气候变化为优势影响因子的区域,面积占比为28.64%；④季前气候因子与品种改变等农业措施调整下物候变化对土壤有机碳变化贡献率较高的区域倾向于分布在高海拔地区,而季中气候因子与气候变化下物候响应对土壤有机碳变化贡献率较高的区域则倾向于分布在低海拔地区. 相关研究结果能够为应对气候变化的耕地质量管理与粮食安全保护等政策的制定提供理论依据. |
| 英文摘要 |
| Research on the mechanism of how climate change affects cultivated soil organic carbon is the basis for the management of cultivated land quality in the context of climate change. Crop phenological responses to climate change have an important effect on cultivated soil organic carbon as well. However, previous research primarily focused on the independent effects of climate change or crop phenological responses on the changes in soil organic carbon, and few studies have analyzed the changes in cultivated soil organic carbon under the combined influence of both factors or quantified their contribution rates to the changes in cultivated soil organic carbon. Based on topsoil samples in 2008 and 2021, annual pre-season and mid-season climate data from 2008 to 2021, and the phenological parameters extracted from the enhanced vegetation index （EVI） time series from 2007 to 2022, a soil organic carbon predictive model was constructed using the random forest algorithm. The total change in soil organic carbon from 2008 to 2021, the change in soil organic carbon under climate change alone, and the change in soil organic carbon under the synergistic influence of climate change and crop phenological responses were simulated. Furthermore, the contributions of climate change and crop phenological responses to the changes in cultivated soil organic carbon were distinguished and quantified. Moreover, the dominant influencing factors of soil organic carbon changes and their spatial distributions were identified and analyzed. The results were as follows： ① Under the synergistic influence of climate change and crop phenological responses, a decrease was observed in soil organic carbon in 74.15% of the cultivated land area in Fujian Province during the years 2008-2021, with an average decrease of 2.20 g·kg-1. Additionally, there was an increase in soil organic carbon in 25.85% of the cultivated area, with an average increase of 1.48 g·kg-1. ②The average contribution rates of pre-season climate, crop phenological responses to climate change, mid-season climate, and phenological changes resulting from cultivars shifts or other adjustments of agricultural measures to soil organic carbon changes were 34.08%, 28.56%, 22.75%, and 14.61%, respectively. Overall, climate change had a greater impact on the changes in cultivated soil organic carbon in Fujian Province than the crop phenological response to climate change. ③ The regions where climate change and phenological response jointly acted as dominant influencing factors held the largest area, accounting for 47.06% of the total cultivated land area in Fujian Province, and the regions where climate change was the dominant influencing factor alone held the second-largest area, accounting for 28.64% of the total cultivated land area. ④ Higher contribution rates of pre-season climate factors and phenological changes resulting from cultivar shifts or other adjustments of agricultural measures tended to be distributed in higher-altitude areas, whereas higher contribution rates of mid-season climate factors and phenological responses to climate change tended to be distributed in lower-altitude areas. These research findings can provide a theoretical basis for decision making regarding the management of cultivated land quality and the safeguarding of food security in the context of climate change. |
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