| 基于FLUS-InVEST模型的大庆市土地覆盖模拟与碳储量评估 |
| 摘要点击 1369 全文点击 253 投稿时间：2023-12-01 修订日期：2024-01-30 |
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| 中文关键词 情景模拟 碳储量 FLUS模型 大庆市 热点分析 |
| 英文关键词 multi-scenario simulation carbon storage FLUS model Daqing City hotspot analysis |
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| 中文摘要 |
| 以大庆市域为研究区,探讨未来土地覆盖变化对碳储量的影响并识别固碳能力热点区域.运用未来土地利用模拟（FLUS）模型模拟2030年自然演替情景、生态保护情景、城市发展情景和综合发展情景土地覆盖格局,结合生态系统服务和权衡的综合评估（InVEST）模型估算2010、2020和2030年4种情景碳储量,最后通过热点分析工具识别固碳能力冷热点区域.结果表明： ①2010~2020年,耕地、水体和人造地表面积增加,其余土地覆盖类型面积均减少,总碳储量减少了8.6×105 t. ②2030年自然演替情景和城市发展情景土地覆盖变化与2010~2020年间相似,碳储量分别减少了1.16×106 t和1.20×106 t,综合发展情景碳储量相比于2020年减少了1.00×106 t,生态保护情景碳储量为5.677 7×108 t,相比2020年增加了2.53×106 t. ③草地和湿地向耕地面积转化,是导致碳储量损失的主要原因,生态保护情景碳储量主要贡献者是湿地. ④固碳能力热点区域主要位于湿地分布地区,冷点区域主要分布在大庆市主城区中心部分,耕地的固碳能力不显著. 根据研究结果,实现大庆市城市转型应坚持退耕还林还草,加大还湿力度,提升城市用地的利用率,在主城区增加绿色基础设施. |
| 英文摘要 |
| Considering Daqing City as the research area, the impact of land cover change on carbon storage in the future was discussed, and the hot spots of carbon sequestration capacity were identified. The future land use simulation （FLUS） model was used to simulate the land cover pattern of a natural succession scenario, ecological protection scenario, urban development scenario, and comprehensive development scenario in 2030, and the integrated valuation of ecosystem services and trade-offs （InVEST） model was combined to estimate carbon storage in 2010, 2020, and 2030. Finally, the hot spot analysis tool was used to identify the cold hot spots of carbon sequestration capacity. The results showed the following： ① From 2010 to 2020, the area of cultivated land, water, and artificial surface increased, whereas the area of other land cover types decreased, and the total carbon storage decreased by 8.6×105 t. ② The land cover change of the natural succession scenario and urban development scenario in 2030 was similar to that of 2010-2020, with carbon storage decreasing by 1.16×106 t and 1.20×106 t, respectively. The carbon storage of the comprehensive development scenario decreased by 1.00×106 t compared with that in 2020, and carbon storage of the ecological protection scenario was 5.677 7×108 t, which increased by 2.53×106 t compared with that in 2020. ③ The conversion of grassland and wetland to cultivated land was the main cause of carbon storage loss, and the main contributor of carbon storage in the ecological protection scenarios was wetland. ④ The hot spots of carbon sequestration capacity were mainly located in the wetland area, and the cold spots were mainly distributed in the central part of Daqing City. The carbon sequestration capacity of cultivated land was not significant. According to the research results, to realize the urban transformation of Daqing City, we should insist on returning farmland to forest and grass, increase the intensity of returning moisture, improve the utilization rate of urban land, and increase green infrastructure in the main urban area. |
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