| 土地利用变化背景下浙中地区生态系统碳储量变化模拟与影响因素分析 |
| 摘要点击 1513 全文点击 277 投稿时间：2023-09-21 修订日期：2024-01-26 |
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| 中文关键词 土地利用 陆地生态系统碳储量 InVEST模型 GeoSOS-FLUS模型 社会经济发展情景 |
| 英文关键词 land use terrestrial ecosystem carbon storage InVEST model GeoSOS-FLUS model socio-economic development scenarios |
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| 中文摘要 |
| 浙中地区是浙江省重点生态功能区,是钱塘江河流生态廊道的重要组成部分. 开展该地区土地利用变化下生态系统碳储量模拟与影响因素分析,对早日实现“碳达峰”、“碳中和”目标具有重要意义. 基于浙中地区1980~2020年5期土地利用数据,耦合GeoSOS-FLUS模型和InVEST模型开展历史时期和未来2030年浙中地区碳储量时空变化分析,并探究社会经济因子和自然因子对碳储量变化的影响. 结果表明：①在1980~2020年间,浙中地区城市建设用地增长了289.91%,耕地和林地成为其主要来源,导致生态系统碳储量降低了588.88×104 t,降幅3%；②浙中地区碳储量高值区集中分布于磐安县、缙云县和武义县等地；③自然发展和生态保护两种不同的情景下,2030年研究区碳储量均有所下降. 相较于2020年,自然发展情景下的碳储量减少1.05%,生态保护情景下碳储量下降0.05%；④自然因子对碳储量分布的影响占主导地位,但随时间变化其影响在不断降低,社会经济因子的影响不断上升,同时社会经济因子和自然因子的叠加作用远大于单一因子对碳储量分布的影响. 相关结果可为浙中乃至全国其他地区减缓生态系统的碳流失,推动生态系统保护,促进社会可持续发展,早日实现“双碳”目标提供科学参考和借鉴. |
| 英文摘要 |
| Central Zhejiang is the key ecological function area of Zhejiang Province and an important part of the Qiantang River ecological corridor. Conducting simulations of ecosystem carbon storage changes and analyzing influencing factors under land-use changes in this region is of significant importance for achieving the goals of “peak carbon” and “carbon neutrality” at an early stage. This study, based on the land use data of five periods from 1980 to 2020 in central Zhejiang, coupled the GeoSOS-FLUS and the InVEST model to analyze the spatiotemporal changes in carbon storage in the region over time and project for the year 2030. The study also explored the impact of socio-economic and natural factors on changes in carbon storage. The results showed that： ① Between 1980 and 2020, urban construction land in the Zhejiang Central Region increased by 289.91%, with cultivated land and forest land being the main sources, leading to a 3% decrease in ecosystem carbon storage, amounting to 588.88×104 tons. ② High-value areas of carbon storage in the Zhejiang Central Region were concentrated in P'an-an County, Jinyun County, Wuyi County, and other areas. ③ Under the two different scenarios of natural development and ecological protection, carbon storage in the research area was projected to decrease by 1.05% and 0.05%, respectively, by 2030 compared to that in 2020. ④ Natural factors dominated the distribution of carbon storage, but their influence was gradually decreasing over time. The impact of socio-economic factors was increasing, and the combined effect of socio-economic and natural factors far outweighed the influence of a single factor on carbon storage distribution. These findings can serve as a scientific reference and guide for mitigating carbon loss in ecosystems, promoting ecosystem protection, facilitating sustainable social development, and achieving the "dual carbon" goals in Zhejiang and other regions nationwide. |
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