| 基于PLUS-InVEST-Geodector模型的三江源国家公园碳储量时空变化及驱动力 |
| 摘要点击 1833 全文点击 367 投稿时间：2023-10-09 修订日期：2024-02-01 |
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| 中文关键词 碳储量 时空分异 PLUS模型 InVEST模型 三江源国家公园 |
| 英文关键词 carbon storage spatial-temporal variation PLUS model InVEST model Three-River-Source National Park |
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| 中文摘要 |
| 探究三江源国家公园生态系统固碳服务功能时空变化、驱动力及其未来发展趋势,对实现区域生态保护与可持续发展具有重要意义. 以5 a为间隔选取三江源国家公园1990~2020年间7期历史土地利用数据,基于PLUS-InVEST-Geodector模型,分析三江源国家公园历史碳储量时空变化情况,结合多方面因子对其历史碳储量时空分异驱动力进行探析,并在自然发展和生态保护情景下对2030年三江源国家公园碳储量进行预测. 结果表明：① 1990~2020年三江源国家公园碳储量呈“增加-减少-增加-减少”波动型变化特征,总体上碳储量增加41.85×106 t,草地是贡献度最大的地类. ②1990~2020年三江源国家公园碳储量空间分布总体特征变化不大,空间分布演化状态较为平稳,长江源园区∶澜沧江源园区∶黄河源园区多年平均碳储量贡献率为7∶1∶2,这与其园区面积比例大致相当. ③1990~2020年三江源国家公园碳储量时空分异的主要驱动因子为FVC、土壤类型和年降水量,各驱动因子交互探测均呈现双因子增强和非线性增强作用. ④2020~2030年,自然发展情景和生态保护情景下三江源国家公园碳储量分别下降4.87%和3.98%,生态保护情景下的碳储量减少抑制作用明显. 研究结果可为三江源国家公园未来国土空间规划,提升陆地生态系统碳储量提供数据支撑. |
| 英文摘要 |
| Exploring the spatial-temporal changes, driving forces, and future development tendency of the carbon sequestration service function of the Three-River-Source National Park ecosystem has great significance for regional ecological protection and sustainable development. Historical land-use data of Three-River-Source National Park from 1990 to 2020 were selected at five-year intervals, and based on the PLUS-InVEST-Geodector model, the spatial-temporal changes of historical carbon storage were analyzed, and the driving forces of spatial-temporal variation were explored combined with multiple factors. The carbon storage of Three-River-Source National Park in 2030 was predicted under the scenarios of natural development and ecological protection. The results showed that： ① The carbon storage of Three-River-Source National Park showed a fluctuating characteristic of increase-decrease-increase-decrease from 1990 to 2020, the carbon storage was increased by 41.85×106 t overall, and the grassland took the largest contribution. ② The spatial distribution characteristics of carbon storage in Three-River-Source National Park had little change between 1990 to 2020, and the evolution of the spatial distribution was relatively stable. The contribution ratio of the Yangtze River source park, Lancang River source park, and Yellow River source park was 7∶1∶2, which was roughly equivalent to the park area. ③ The major driving factors of the spatial-temporal variation of carbon storage in Three-River-Source National Park from 1990 to 2020 were： FVC, soil type, and annual precipitation. The interactive detection of each driving factor showed dual-factor enhancement and nonlinear enhancement. ④ The carbon storage of Three-River-Source National Park was predicted to decrease by 4.87% and 3.98% from 2020 to 2030 under the scenarios of natural development and ecological protection, respectively, and the carbon storage reduction under the ecological protection scenario had a significant inhibitory effect. The findings can provide data support for national spatial planning of Three-River-Source National Park and the enhancement of terrestrial ecosystem carbon storage. |
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