| 基于MCCA土地利用情景模拟的太行山区生态系统服务价值时空演变及预测 |
| 摘要点击 2296 全文点击 301 投稿时间：2023-11-03 修订日期：2024-01-08 |
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| 中文关键词 生态系统服务价值（ESV） 情景模拟 MCCA模型 土地利用 太行山区 |
| 英文关键词 ecosystem service value（ESV） scenario simulation MCCA model land use Taihang Mountains |
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| 中文摘要 |
| 生态系统服务价值（ESV）是关乎区域生态福祉的重要指标,把握其演变规律可为区域生态文明建设和可持续发展提供参考.以华北地区重要的生态安全屏障太行山区为例,基于2000~2020年土地利用数据,使用土地利用转移矩阵、改进的当量因子法和MCCA模型,揭示太行山区土地利用和ESV变化特征,开展2035年ESV多情景模拟.结果表明：①2000~2020年,太行山区土地利用类型以耕地、林地和草地为主,耕地和草地面积显著下降,林地和建设用地面积稳定上升；土地利用转移规模2.06×104 km2,耕地和草地向外转移强度较高. ②太行山区生态系统服务功能以调节服务为主,ESV整体呈稳定上涨趋势,2000~2020年增加1.51×1010元；ESV空间分布不均且极化现象明显,高值区集聚在北部和中南部高海拔地区,低值区多位于东西两侧地势平缓的山麓平原及中部台地. ③2035年,太行山区自然增长、城市发展和生态旅游这3种情景ESV相较于2020年分别增加5.37×109元、4.34×109元和7.64×109元,主要由耕地和草地向林地转移引起；自然增长情景ESV空间转换强度较高,城市发展情景耕地ESV损失严重,生态旅游情景ESV提升明显.研究结果可为太行山区生态系统健康管理和可持续发展建设提供科学参考. |
| 英文摘要 |
| Ecosystem service value （ESV） is an important indicator related to regional ecological well-being, and understanding its evolution can provide references for regional ecological civilization construction and sustainable development. The Taihang Mountains, an important ecological security barrier in North China, were taken as an example. Based on land use data from 2000 to 2020, this study revealed the changes in land use and ecosystem service value in the Taihang Mountains and conducted multi-scenario simulations of ESV in 2035. Additionally, the land use transfer matrix, improved equivalent factor method, and mixed-cell cellular automata model were used. The results showed that： ① From 2000 to 2020, the main land use types in the Taihang Mountains were cropland, forest land, and grassland. The area of cropland and grassland significantly decreased, whereas the area of forest land and construction land remained stable. The scale of land use transfer was 2.06×104 km2, with a high intensity of transfer from cropland and grassland to other areas, mainly guided by ecological construction. ② The ecosystem service functions in the Taihang Mountains were mainly dominated by regulation services, and the overall ESV showed a stable upward trend, increasing by 1.51×1010 RMB from 2000 to 2020. The spatial distribution of ESV was uneven, and the polarization phenomenon was evident, with high-value areas concentrated in the high-altitude areas in the northern and central-southern parts and low-value areas mostly located in the flat foothills and central plateaus on both sides. They were greatly influenced by human activities. ③ By 2035, compared with that in 2020, the ESV in the Taihang Mountains was projected to increase by 5.37 billion RMB in the natural growth scenario, 4.34 billion RMB in the urban development scenario, and 7.64 billion RMB in the ecological tourism scenario, mainly due to the conversion from cropland and grassland to forest land. The natural growth scenario showed a high intensity of spatial transformation of ESV, the urban development scenario experienced severe ESV loss in cropland, and the ecological tourism scenario showed a significant increase in ESV, which was an effective path for promoting green development in the Taihang Mountains. The research results can provide scientific references for the healthy management and sustainable development of the ecosystem in the Taihang Mountains. |
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