| 气候变化和人类活动对长江经济带生态敏感性的影响分析 |
| 摘要点击 1997 全文点击 312 投稿时间：2023-11-07 修订日期：2024-01-08 |
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| 中文关键词 生态敏感性 气候变化 人类活动 响应曲面法 长江经济带 |
| 英文关键词 ecological sensitivity climate change human activities response surface methodology Yangtze River Economic Belt |
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| 中文摘要 |
| 当前气候变化和人类干扰日益加剧,二者分别以单独和交互作用对地区生态敏感程度施加影响. 因而厘清气候和人为因素在生态敏感性变化中的作用,对于提升地区生态环境韧性和可持续发展水平至关重要. 以中国生态文明建设的先行示范带——长江经济带为研究对象,基于2001~2021年长江经济带130个城市的气象、遥感和统计数据,构建气候变化、人类活动和生态敏感性指标体系,并运用响应曲面法（RSM）探究各地区的气候和人为单因子及交互作用对生态敏感性的影响效应. 结果表明：①长江经济带生态敏感值在时间上波动上升,2001~2021年上升了2.2%；空间上总体呈现出“北高南低”空间分布,2021年长江经济带内重度和极度敏感城市的比例将近50%. ②对于单因子,同一因子影响效应的分布具有一定的特征,其中经济发展、降雨量和气温单因子对生态敏感性产生正向影响的地区,分别集中于经济水平高或发展速度快的地区、长江沿线和长江以南. 对于交互因子,78.6%的因子间作用对生态敏感性的影响效应为负交互,则这些交互因子中一个因子水平的变化会改变另一因子对地区敏感性的影响效应方向. ③以生态敏感性和气候敏感性为复合敏感程度依据来划分长江经济带的综合生态管治区,其中需优先改善的治理区在3个城市群内部及其北邻区域聚集分布,即长江经济带中城市的气候敏感程度和生态敏感程度具有溢出效应. 本研究有望为流域经济区乃至全国和全球在区域生态治理领域的努力提供启发性意见. |
| 英文摘要 |
| The increasing climate change and human activities exert their influence on the ecological sensitivity of the region individually and interactively. Therefore, a clear understanding of the impact of climate change and human activities on ecological sensitivity will enhance the resilience of the regional ecological environment and the level of sustainable development. This study took the Yangtze River Economic Belt, the first demonstration zone of China's ecological civilization construction, as the research object. Based on the meteorological, remote sensing, and statistical data of 130 cities in the whole region from 2001 to 2021, an index system of climate change, human activities, and ecological sensitivity was constructed. Response surface methodology （RSM） was used to explore the effects of climate and anthropogenic single factors and interactions on the ecological sensitivity in each region. The results showed that： ① The ecological sensitivity value of the belt fluctuated and rose in time, rising by 2.2% from 2001 to 2021. In terms of space, the overall spatial distribution was “high in the north and low in the south.” In 2021, the proportion of severely and extremely sensitive cities in the Yangtze River Economic Belt reached nearly 50%. ② For a single factor, the distribution of the effect of the same factor had certain characteristics： The areas where the single factors of economic development, rainfall, and temperature had a positive impact on the ecological sensitivity were concentrated in the areas with higher or faster economic development, along and south of the Yangtze River. For the interaction factors, the effect of 78.6% of the factors on the ecological sensitivity was negative interaction, and the change of one factor level would change the direction of the effect of the other factor on the regional sensitivity. ③ The comprehensive ecological management area of the Yangtze River Economic Belt was divided based on the ecological sensitivity and climate sensitivity. The governance areas that needed priority improvement were clustered within the three urban agglomerations and their northern adjacent areas, which meant that the ecological sensitivity and climate sensitivity of a city had spillover effects. This study is expected to provide inspiration for the economic zone and even the national and global efforts in the field of regional ecological governance. |
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