| 未来不同情景下陕西省碳储量的时空演变分析 |
| 摘要点击 1624 全文点击 401 投稿时间：2023-10-08 修订日期：2023-11-24 |
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| 中文关键词 土地生态 情景预测 Logistic-Markov-FLUS模型 碳储量评估 时空演变 |
| 英文关键词 land ecology scenario prediction Logistic-Markov-FLUS model carbon storage assessment spatiotemporal evolution |
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| 中文摘要 |
| 为了解陕西省不同情景下的土地利用发展趋势,并有效评估土地利用变化下陕西省陆地生态碳储量时空演变,研究运用Markov-FLUS和InVEST模型,分析2000~2020年的土地利用变化对于陕西省碳储量变化的影响,并模拟和评估陕西省2025年和2030年3种不同情景下的土地利用结构,碳储量和碳密度的时空变化.结果表明： ①耦合的Markov-FLUS模型中各地类的ROC值均在0.7以上,表现出较高精度与优秀的分类性能,模型对研究区的土地利用驱动因子解释能力较好,具有高精度和优秀的分类性能.②2000~2020年,陕西省的耕地大幅减少,林地显著增加,高固碳效益的林地面积增加使得陕西省的碳储量从1 546.95 Tg上升到1 616.25 Tg. 2000~2020年陕西省内各地区的变化互有差异,其中延安的碳储量显著增加了18.89 Tg,榆林的碳储量则在20年间显著减少了3.29 Tg. ③海拔、降水和气温成为影响2020~2030年陕西省碳储量时空变化的主要因素,在2025年与2030年的3种不同情景下,在生态优先情景下碳储量分别为1 632.27 Tg和1 647.43 Tg,碳储量及其增速明显高于自然发展情景和耕地保护情景. ④生态优先情景下碳储量增加区占比高于耕地保护情景,减少区占比低于自然发展情景,碳储量的分布表现最为均衡。同时,陕北黄土高原区的南部和北部区域在未来的发展中需要重点关注生态环境的保护.研究结果一定程度上可以为推进生态陕西建设和制定碳中和战略规划提供参考. |
| 英文摘要 |
| To understand the land use development trends in Shaanxi Province under different scenarios and effectively assess the spatiotemporal evolution of terrestrial ecological carbon stocks in Shaanxi Province under land use changes, the study used Markov-FLUS and InVEST models to analyze the impact of land use changes in Shaanxi Province from 2000 to 2020. The impact of carbon storage changes and the spatiotemporal changes in land use structure, carbon storage, and carbon density under three different scenarios were simulated and assessed in Shaanxi Province in 2025 and 2030. The results showed： ① The ROC values of various categories in the coupled Markov-FLUS model were all above 0.7, showing high accuracy and excellent classification performance. The model had a good ability to explain the land use driving factors in the study area, with high accuracy and excellent classification performance. ② From 2000 to 2020, the cultivated land in Shaanxi Province increased significantly. Forest land increased significantly, and the increase in forest land area with high carbon sequestration efficiency caused the carbon storage in Shaanxi Province to increase from 1 546.95 Tg to 1 616.25 Tg. The changes in various regions in Shaanxi Province from 2000 to 2020 were different, among which the carbon storage in Yan’an was significantly increased by 18.89 Tg, whereas the carbon storage in Yulin significantly decreased by 3.29 Tg in 20 years. ③ Altitude, precipitation, and temperature became the main factors affecting the spatiotemporal changes in carbon storage in Shaanxi Province from 2020 to 2030. In three of the years between 2025 and 2030, under different scenarios, the carbon stocks under the ecological priority scenario were 1 632.27 Tg and 1 647.43 Tg, respectively. The carbon storage and its growth rate were significantly higher than in the natural development scenario and the cultivated land protection scenario. ④ The proportion of carbon storage increase areas under the ecological priority scenario was high. In the cultivated land protection scenario, the proportion of reduction areas was lower than that of the natural development scenario, and the distribution of carbon storage was the most balanced. At the same time, the southern and northern areas of the Loess Plateau in northern Shaanxi need to focus on the protection of the ecological environment in future development. The research results can, to a certain extent, provide reference for promoting the construction of ecological Shaanxi and formulating carbon neutral strategic planning. |
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